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Super Computer rates Newcastle United chance of beating Fulham and relegation probability

7 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s match against Fulham.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this midweek, including this game against Fulham

Their computer model gives Fulham a 32% chance of a win, it is 28% for a draw and a 40% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability as 29% of Liverpool retaining the title and Man City a 46% chance, Chelsea 7%, Man Utd 7%, Tottenham 6%, Leicester 1%, everybody else (including Newcastle!) having a less than 1% chance of winning the league.

Newcastle United aren’t given even a 1% chance to finish top four.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation as we head towards a third of the season gone:

83% West Brom

79% Sheff Utd

48% Fulham

36% Burnley

17% Brighton

17% Newcastle United

7% Leeds

7% Palace

3% Arsenal

2% Wolves

1% Villa

Only four of the bottom six in the Premier League rated more likely than Newcastle United to be relegated, even though Brighton and Arsenal are currently below NUFC in the table. Brighton rated the same chance even though Newcastle are currently six points ahead of them and with a game in hand, whilst also a game in hand of Arsenal who are three points adrift of NUFC.

Improved performances and a win and two draws in their last four matches have seen Fulham move at last to a position of being seen as slightly more likely to stay up, with a 48% probability of relegation. They are third bottom now after Burley drew last night at Villa to go a point above Fulham, a win for Scott Parker’s team on Saturday could take them as high as sixteenth though.

The bookies make Fulham a 2/1 chance to beat Newcastle which is the equivalent of a 33% probability, compared to this super computer model rating Fulham at a very similar 32% chance of winning, Newcastle with a 40% probability according to the super computer generated model, very similar to the bookies who have NUFC at 6/4, which is the equivalent of a 40% possibility.


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