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Only 2% chance of Newcastle United success – Super Computer probability

9 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s match against Manchester City.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including this game against Manchester City.

Their computer model gives Man City a 89% chance of a win, it is 9% for a draw and a 2% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability as 38% of Liverpool retaining the title and Man City a 42% chance, Man Utd 8%, Chelsea 6%, Tottenham 2%, Leicester 1%, everybody else (including Newcastle!) having a less than 1% chance of winning the league.

Newcastle United aren’t given even a 1% chance to finish top four.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation as we head towards a third of the season gone:

89% West Brom

82% Sheff Utd

46% Fulham

26% Burnley

18% Newcastle United

14% Brighton

8% Leeds

10% Palace

3% Arsenal

2% Wolves

1% West Ham

Only four of the bottom eight in the Premier League rated more likely than Newcastle United to be relegated, even though Brighton, Palace, Leeds and Arsenal are currently below NUFC in the table.

Brighton rated to have less chance of relegation even though Newcastle are currently six points ahead of them!

The bookies make Man City a 1/7  chance to beat Newcastle which is the equivalent of an 86 % probability, compared to this super computer model rating Man City at a very similar 89% chance of winning.

Newcastle with only a 2% probability according to the super computer generated model, very similar to the bookies who have NUFC at a massive 28/1, which is the equivalent of roughly a 3% possibility.


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