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Super Computer rates Newcastle United chance of beating Crystal Palace and relegation probability

5 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Friday’s match against Crystal Palace.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including this game against Crystal Palace.

Their computer model gives Crystal Palace a 44% chance of a win, it is 28% for a draw and a 28% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability as 31% of Liverpool retaining the title and Man City a 44% chance, Chelsea 10%, Tottenham 6%, Man Utd 4% and Leicester 3%.

Newcastle United aren’t given any rating to win the title anymore, nor even a 1% chance to finish top four.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation at this early stage:

73% West Brom

62% Fulham

58% Sheff Utd

38% Burnley

22% Newcastle United

12% Palace

12% Brighton

12% Leeds

3% Wolves

2% West Ham

2% Everton

2% Villa

2% Southampton

1% Arsenal

Only the bottom four in the Premier League rated more likely than Newcastle United and then Crystal Palace (and others on the same rating) to go down. A win for either on Friday night would make a significant difference no doubt.


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