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Super Computer model rates Newcastle United chance of beating Chelsea and relegation probability

11 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s match against Chelsea.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including this game against Wolves.

Their computer model gives Chelsea a 62% chance of a win, it is 22% for a draw and a 17% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability as 28% of Liverpool retaining the title and Man City a 46% chance, Chelsea 9%, Tottenham 5%, Leicester 4%, Man Utd 3% and Arsenal 1%.

Newcastle United aren’t given any rating to win the title anymore, nor even a 1% chance to finish top four.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation at this early stage:

71% West Brom

58% Fulham

48% Sheff Utd

44% Burnley

19% Newcastle United

17% Brighton

16% Leeds

11% Palace

4% West Ham

3% Wolves

3% Everton

2% Villa

2% Southampton

1% Arsenal

Only the bottom four rated more likely than Newcastle to go down, whilst interesting to note that Brighton, Leeds and Man Utd are rated less likely to be relegated than NUFC, even though they are currently below Steve Bruce’s team in the Premier League.


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