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Super Computer model rates Newcastle United chances of beating Manchester United and relegation probability

4 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s match against Manchester United.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including this game against Manchester United.

Their computer model gives Manchester United a 54% chance of a win, it is 23% for a draw and a 23% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability as 30% of Liverpool retaining the title and Man City a 46% chance, Chelsea 8%, Tottenham 4%. Man Utd, Everton and Leicester 3%.

Interesting though that they also give Man Utd a 2% chance of relegation (see below), with Newcastle United rated that same chance (2%) to finish top four.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation at this early stage:

62% West Brom

59% Fulham

41% Sheff Utd

32% Burnley

22% Newcastle United

18% Palace

16% Leeds

16% Brighton

10% Southampton

6% West Ham

6% Wolves

5% Villa

2% Man Utd

2% Arsenal

1% Everton

As well as a 22% chance of going down, the Super Computer model has a 2% probability of Newcastle United qualifying for the Champions League…


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