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Super Computer model rates Newcastle United chance of beating Everton and relegation probability

4 weeks ago
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Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Sunday’s match against Everton.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including this game against Wolves.

Their computer model gives Everton a 45% chance of a win, it is 26% for a draw and a 29% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability as 24% of Liverpool retaining the title and Man City a 52% chance, Chelsea 6%, Man Utd 6%, Tottenham 4%, Leicester 3% and Everton 2%.

Newcastle United are rated at somewhere less than 1% to win the title but given a predicted 1% chance to finish top four.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation at this early stage:

66% Fulham

62% West Brom

44% Sheff Utd

37% Burnley

25% Newcastle United

17% Brighton

15% Palace

10% Leeds

5% Southampton

5% West Ham

5% Wolves

4% Villa

2% Arsenal

1% Everton

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