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Super Computer model rates Newcastle final place probability and chances of beating West Ham

1 year ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday night’s match at the London Stadium.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches for this weekend, including this game against West Ham.

Their computer model gives West Ham a 49% chance of an away win, it is 26% for a draw and a 26% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the season as a whole, they rate Newcastle United as a 2% chance of qualifying for the Champions League but a 31% possibility of going down.

Their computer model predicts this as the final 2020/21 Premier League table (with number of points and then goal difference in brackets):

Man. City 88 (+63)

Liverpool 80 (+46)

Man. United 71 (+28)

Chelsea 69 (+27)

Tottenham 57 (+7)

Leicester 57 (+7)

Arsenal 56 (+4)

Wolves 54 (+3)

Everton 51 (-3)

Southampton 50 (-5)

West Ham 47 (-9)

Burnley 44 (-14)

Sheffield Utd 43 (-14)

Brighton 43 (-15)

Crystal Palace 42 (-16)

Aston Vila 42 (-18)

Newcastle 39 (-21)

Fulham 39 (-22)

Leeds United 39 (-22)

West Brom 36 (-27)

The (relatively) good news is that their computer model predict Newcastle United avoiding relegation.

The not so good news is that they rate Newcastle to do it by ending the season in seventeenth place, level on points with eighteenth positioned Fulham, only staying up by one goal on goal difference!


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