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Super Computer model rates Newcastle United chances of beating Tottenham – No surprise?

3 weeks ago
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Interesting look at Newcastle United for Wednesday’s match against Tottenham.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this midweek, including this game against Tottenham.

Their computer model gives Tottenham a 45% chance of a win, it is 26% for a draw and a 29% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

A bit surprising that they make Tottenham clear favourites to win?

Newcastle have only won four of their last seventeen Premier League matches.

However, Tottenham have only won one of their last nine PL games, and in the last seven months since 15 December 2019, Spurs have only won one PL away game, which was 3-2 at Villa in February.

Contributing to the odds so much in favour of Spurs, this computer model has reacted to the Premier League currently playing matches in empty stadiums, by reducing the home advantage factor by 60% when generating their predictions. Pretty much every European league seeing considerably less home wins since football kicked off again.

Also interesting to see how the computer model now rates the percentage probability chances of relegation, Newcastle now mathematically safe:

Norwich (Relegated)

85% Bournemouth

85% Villa

20% Watford

10% West Ham

1% Brighton

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