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Super Computer model rates Newcastle United chances of beating Manchester City – Surprising

1 month ago
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Interesting look at Newcastle United for Wednesday’s match against Manchester City.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this midweek, including this game against Man City.

Their computer model gives Man City a 65% chance of a win, it is 19% for a draw and a 16% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

A 16% chance isn’t great but it represents just higher than a 5/1 possibility, which is very very small when you consider the bookies are offering as high as 30/1 for a Newcastle United win.

A few reasons for this when you use a statistics based model…

Man City may be second in the league but they have lost around 27% (nine of thirty three) of PL matches this season, plus they have lot three of their last six PL games, including the last one at Southampton.

Also, interesting to see that this computer model has reacted to the Premier League currently playing matches in empty stadiums, by reducing the home advantage factor by 60% when generating their predictions. Pretty much every European league seeing considerably less home wins since football kicked off again.

Also interesting to see how the computer model now rates the percentage probability chances of relegation, Newcastle now mathematically safe:

99% Norwich

90% Bournemouth

79% Villa

22% Watford

9% West Ham

1% Brighton

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