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Opinion

This Newcastle United squad valuation has these serious flaws

6 months ago
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The last 24 hours have seen the Newcastle United squad valuation in the spotlight.

A new report has estimated that the 20 Premier League squads have collectively lost around £1.6billion in value due to the virus situation.

Manchester City were rated the one to have lost most value over the last month, down £225m, though still valued at £917m.

As for the Newcastle United squad valuation, Transfermarkt judged it to have dropped by £55m, now down to £222m. Making it the 12th most valuable in the Premier League, according to their workings out.

Transfermarkt is a website that specialises in trying to assess transfer fees on deals that have happened and subsequent player values afterwards on an ongoing basis, calculating a player’s value using a variety of data. They take into account a variety of statistics, including a player’s age, length of contract remaining and any previous transfer fees.

This is what they estimate each Premier League squad is now (9 April 2020) worth:

However, when you scratch the surface, this Newcastle United squad valuation has some serious flaws.

These are the individual Transfermarkt player valuations that are added together to come to that NUFC squad total valuation above:

Obviously, it is very hard to have a one size fits all, to value every player with any degree of accuracy.

Such as Newcastle’s best player this season, valued at less than £5m, despite being worth far more than that and one of the best keepers in the league. His low value in this report due to his age, the fact he played in lowly leagues before NUFC and the Premier League, plus commanding very little in transfer fees in his career.

The biggest thing much of the media have totally missed when reporting this story (PL clubs drop in valuation by £1.6billion) is that valuation is not the same as what transfer value there is for each PL squad.

For starters, you have Lazaro (£13.5m), Bentaleb (£3.6m), Willems (£4.95m) and Danny Rose (£14.4m) contributing over £36m to the Newcastle United squad value but of course they are just loans, they aren’t NUFC assets. Likewise, the likes of players out on loan such as Lazaar, Murphy and Aarons aren’t included in the NUFC squad valuation, although dubious what they would add anyway…Freddie Woodman the only NUFC first team squad player out on loan who will have any significant transfer fee value if sold.

Matty Longstaff is valued at £3.24m above but unless signing a new contract, NUFC would only get £400,000 development compensation this summer if/when he moves on.

Elliot (£540k), Manquillo (£3.6m), Carroll (£2.88m), Colback (£1.44m) and Sterry (£68k) are all given values above but are out of contract this summer, so have zero value in terms of transfer fee.

A quick adding up shows that this Newcastle United squad has a transfer fee value of no more than £170m, if you accept the Tranferemarkt valuations of the NUFC players who are contracted beyond the end of this season.

Those valuations probably even themselves out, as in the likes of Dubravka, Almiron and Hayden having a transfer value higher than the Transfermarkt figures, whilst others such as Joelinton will be worth less than the values quoted, plus the likes of Krafth and Saivet will be impossible to be moved on unless Newcastle gave them away and/or did a deal on their wages.

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