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Super Computer model rates Newcastle United chances of beating Southampton and relegation probability

2 years ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s match against Southampton.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including this game against the Saints.

Their computer model gives Ssouthampton a 55% chance of a win, it is 25% for a draw and a 20% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

This reflects the bookies odds of 4/1 on NUFC winning, whilst they make Southampton odds-on of 4/6.

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability at greater than 99% for Liverpool and the rest (including Man City now) nowhere, the scousers still 22 points clear despite that defeat to Watford.

Also interesting to see how the computer model now rates the percentage probability chances of relegation:

92% Norwich

62% Villa

58% Bournemouth

26% Brighton

26% West Ham

18% Watford

16% Newcastle United

1% Southampton

So they now rate Newcastle a one in six chance of going down, Steve Bruce’s team only five points clear of the relegation zone.


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