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What Premier League Expected Goals stats tell us after Arsenal 4 Newcastle 0

2 years ago

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the weekend’s Premier League Expected Goals stats (actual final scoreline in brackets) by Understat:

Friday 14 February 2020

Wolves 1.12 v 0.53 Leicester (0-0)

Saturday 15 February 2020

Southampton 0.48 0.90 Burnley (1-2)

Norwich 0.38 v 2.06 Liverpool (0-1)

Sunday 16 February 2020

Aston Villa 1.68 v 3.72 Tottenham (2-3)

Arsenal 3.09 v 0.85 Newcastle United (4-0)

As you can see, in every case the results matched up with the Expected Goals stats.

The team that works the best chances most often in a match, gives itself the best chance of winning.

So Spurs, Liverpool and Burnley were very much deserving of their wins on balance of play/chances.

Wolves were more threatening than Leicester but not overwhelmingly so, meaning a draw wasn’t that unfair.

As for the Newcastle game at Arsenal, Steve Bruce blathered on about his team having a couple of chances but as you can see the 2.24 expected goals disparity between Arsenal (3.09) and Newcastle United (0.85) was the biggest between two teams in all of the weekend’s fixtures.


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