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Super Computer model rates Newcastle United chances of beating Burnley and relegation probability

2 years ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s match against Burnley.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including this game against Sean Dyche’s team.

Their computer model gives Burnley a 37% chance of a win, it is 28% for a draw and a 35% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability at greater than 99% for Liverpool and the rest (including Man City now) nowhere, now a case of when, not if, the scousers will win the PL.

Also interesting to see how the computer model now rates the percentage probability chances of relegation:

94% Norwich

54% Bournemouth

54% Villa

38% Watford

34% West Ham

12% Newcastle United

10% Brighton

3% Palace

So they now rate Newcastle a one in eight chance of going down, Steve Bruce’s team seven points clear of the relegation zone.


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