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Super Computer model rates Newcastle United chances of beating Arsenal and relegation probability

2 years ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Sunday’s match against Arsenal.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including this game against Mikel Arteta’s team.

Their computer model gives Arsenal a 60% chance of a win, it is 23% for a draw and a 17% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability at 99% Liverpool and the rest (including Man City now) nowhere, a quite remarkable situation with still three months of the season remaining.

Also interesting to see how the computer model now rates the percentage probability chances of relegation:

90% Norwich

48% Bournemouth

43% Villa

43% West Ham

36% Watford

15% Brighton

10% Newcastle United

8% Palace

4% Burnley

2% Southampton

So they now rate Newcastle a one in ten chance of going down, Steve Bruce’s team seven points clear of the relegation zone.

The bookies have Newcastle at 8/1 to be relegated after the draw against Norwich, pretty much matching the Soccer Power Index model chances of 9/1 (10%).


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