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Super Computer model rates Newcastle chances of beating Crystal Palace and relegation probability

7 months ago
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Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s match against Crystal Palace.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including this game against Roy Hodgson’s team.

Their computer model gives Crystal Palace a 52% chance of a win, it is 21% for a draw and a 27% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number). This matches pretty much the bookies odds, who have Palace at even money (1/1) to win the game, with Newcastle 3/1.

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability at greater than 99% Liverpool and the rest (including Man City now) nowhere, now a case of when, not if, the scousers will win the PL.

Also interesting to see how the computer model now rates the percentage probability chances of relegation:

93% Norwich

45% Bournemouth

48% Villa

43% West Ham

35% Watford

13% Brighton

12% Newcastle United

7% Palace

3% Southampton

So they now rate Newcastle a one in eight chance of going down, Steve Bruce’s team seven points clear of the relegation zone.

However, interesting that despite Palace being one place and one point below NUFC, they are rated as a lower (7%) chance of going down.

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