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Super Computer model rates Newcastle United relegation probability and chances of beating Wolves

10 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s match at Molineux.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this midweek, including this game at Molineux against Wolves.

Their computer model gives Wolves a 62% chance of an away win, it is 23% for a draw and a 15% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability at 97% Liverpool, 3% Man City and the rest nowhere, a quite remarkable situation with just over half the season gone.

Also interesting to see how the computer model now rates the percentage probability chances of relegation:

89% Norwich

45% Villa

39% Bournemouth

36% Watford

25% Newcastle United

24% West Ham

16% Burnley

9% Brighton

9% Southampton

4% Palace

2% Everton

2% Sheff Utd

1% Arsenal

So they now rate Newcastle a one in four chance of going down, compared to a one in eight chance before this run of three defeats in a row.

This fits in with the appraisal of the bookies who have Newcastle at 3/1 to be relegated.

With Chelsea home and Everton away following this Wolves match, this could be a pivotal time in deciding whether NUFC are going to be well and truly dragged into the relegation battle once again.


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