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Super Computer model rates Newcastle United relegation probability and chances of beating Leicester

1 year ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and today’s game at St James Park.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this midweek, including this game at SJP against Leicester.

Their computer model gives Leicester a 52% chance of an away win, it is 25% for a draw and a 24% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability at 96% Liverpool, 4% Man City and the rest nowhere.

Also interesting to see how the computer model now rates the percentage probability chances of relegation:

85% Norwich

55% Villa

43% Watford

36% West Ham

24% Bournemouth

14% Southampton

14% Newcastle United

9% Burnley

9% Brighton

4% Palace

3% Arsenal

2% Everton

less than 1% Sheff Utd

So they now rate Newcastle only a one in seven chance of going down, though still more likely to be relegated than Brighton, Burnley and Arsenal  despite that trio being below NUFC in the Premier League table at the halfway point.


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