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Super Computer model rates Newcastle United chances of beating Everton and relegation probability

9 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and today’s match against Everton at Goodison Park.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this midweek, including this game against Carlo Ancelotti’s team.

Their computer model gives Everton a 62% chance of a win, it is 23% for a draw and a 15% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability at 99% Liverpool and the rest (including Man City now) nowhere, a quite remarkable situation with still four months of the season remaining.

Also interesting to see how the computer model now rates the percentage probability chances of relegation:

91% Norwich

67% Bournemouth

50% Villa

31% West Ham

19% Watford

12% Brighton

11% Burnley

10% Newcastle United

4% Southampton

3% Palace

1% Arsenal

So they now rate Newcastle a one in ten chance of going down, Steve Bruce’s team seven points clear of the relegation zone.

The bookies have Newcastle at 8/1 to be relegated after the win over Chelsea, pretty much matching the Soccer Power Index model chances of 9/1 (10%).


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