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Super Computer model rates Newcastle United chances of beating Chelsea and relegation probability

3 months ago
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Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and today’s match against Chelsea at St James Park.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this midweek, including this game at St James Park against Frank Lampard’s team.

Their computer model gives Chelsea a 62% chance of a win, it is 21% for a draw and a 16% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability at 98% Liverpool, 2% Man City and the rest nowhere, a quite remarkable situation with still four months of the season remaining.

Also interesting to see how the computer model now rates the percentage probability chances of relegation:

93% Norwich

54% Bournemouth

50% Villa

28% West Ham

20% Newcastle United

18% Watford

18% Burnley

10% Brighton

4% Palace

3% Southampton

1% Arsenal

So they now rate Newcastle a one in five chance of going down.

The bookies have Newcastle at 3/1 to be relegated, thinking it is a more likely possibility (one in four chance) than the Soccer Power Index model.

Interesting to see that despite being lower in table currently than Newcastle United: Burnley, Brighton and Watford are all rated less likely to go down.

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