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What Premier League Expected Goals stats show after Manchester United 4 Newcastle United 1

1 year ago

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are Boxing Day’s Premier League Expected Goals stats (actual final scoreline in brackets) by Understat:

Thursday 26 December 2019

Tottenham 1.03 v 1.09 Brighton (2-1)

Aston Villa 0.65 v 1.45 Norwich (1-0)

Bournemouth 1.55 v 1.42 Arsenal (1-1)

Chelsea 0.86 v 0.98 Southampton (0-2)

Crystal Palace 2.14 v 0.80 West Ham (2-1)

Everton 1.48 v 0.57 Burnley (1-0)

Sheffield United 2.04 v 0.60 Watford (1-1)

Manchester United 2.00 v 1.05 Newcastle United (4-1)

Leicester 0.12 v 3.77 Liverpool (0-4)

As you can see, in most cases the results tend to match up with the Expected Goals stats.

The unlucky teams maybe being Norwich who lost at Villa despite having far better chances overall, whilst Sheffield United were even more dominant at home to Watford but only got  draw.

As for Newcastle United, as usual the opposition had better/more chances in the game but actually the differential wasn’t as high as it has often been for NUFC.  Reality was that for pretty much all the second half Newcastle just packed the defence and didn’t try to get back into the game, whilst Man Utd were happy to cruise through the second period and subbed key players to save them for the weekend, meaning they had very few chances in decent positions after scoring the fourth goal on 51 minutes.


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