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Super Computer model rates Newcastle United relegation probability and chances of beating Everton

10 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and today’s game at St James Park.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this midweek, including this game at SJP against Everton.

Their computer model gives Everton a 41% chance of an away win, it is 28% for a draw and a 31% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability at 95% Liverpool, 5% Man City and the rest nowhere.

Also interesting to see how the computer model now rates the percentage probability chances of relegation:

85% Norwich

59% Watford

45% Villa

32% West Ham

20% Bournemouth

15% Brighton

14% Southampton

12% Newcastle United

7% Burnley

4% Palace

4% Everton

2% Arsenal

1% Sheff Utd

So they now rate Newcastle only a one in eight chance of going down, though still more likely to be relegated than Burnley, Arsenal and Everton despite that trio being below NUFC in the Premier League table at the halfway point.


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