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Super Computer model rates Newcastle United relegation probability and chances of beating Crystal Palace

10 months ago
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Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s game at St James Park.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including the game at St James Park.

Their computer model gives Palace a 30% chance of a home win, it is 29% for a draw and a 41% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability at 84% Liverpool, 15% Man City and 1% Leicester.

Also interesting to see how the computer model now rates the percentage probability chances of relegation:

74% Norwich

67% Watford

40% Southampton

35% Villa

22% West Ham

13% Newcastle United

12% Bournemouth

10% Burnley

9% Brighton

6% Palace

5% Everton

3% Sheff Utd

3% Arsenal

2% Wolves

So they now rate Newcastle only a one in eight chance of going down.

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