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Super Computer model rates Newcastle relegation probability and chances of beating Man Utd

10 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Thursday’s game at Old Trafford.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this midweek, including the game at Old Trafford.

Their computer model gives Man Utd a 65% chance of a home win, it is 22% for a draw and a 13% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability at 82% Liverpool, 17% Man City and the rest nowhere.

Also interesting to see how the computer model now rates the percentage probability chances of relegation:

82% Norwich

54% Watford

48% Villa

28% Southampton

24% West Ham

18% Bournemouth

15% Brighton

11% Newcastle United

7% Palace

5% Burnley

5% Everton

3% Arsenal

1% Sheff Utd

So they now rate Newcastle only a one in eleven chance of going down.


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