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Premier League Expected Goals stats show Newcastle as odd one out yet again after win over Palace

10 months ago
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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

Of this weekend’s nine Premier League matches showed only one team with the lower Expected Goals stat, beating their opponent…

So now on to this past weekend’s Premier League Expected Goals stats calculated during games (actual final scoreline in brackets) by Understat:

Saturday 21 December 2019

Everton 0.49 v 0.88 Arsenal (0-0)

Aston Villa 0.92 v 2.63 Southampton (1-3)

Bournemouth 0.14 v 0.14 Burnley (0-1)

Brighton 0.43 v 1.66 Sheffield United (0-1)

Newcastle United 0.71 v 0.99 Crystal Palace (1-0)

Norwich 1.27 v 1.65 Wolves (1-2)

Manchester City 3.59 v 1.01 Leicester (3-1)

Sunday 22 December 2019

Watford 1.59 v 1.53 Manchester United (2-0)

Tottenham 0.28 v 1.49 Chelsea (0-2)

As you can see, in seven cases the team that had the higher Expected Goals stats were also the winners of the game.

Bournemouth and Burnley had the same low Expected Goals stat but the visitors edged the game with an 89th minute goal that was the only time anybody had an effort on target.

Which leaves Newcastle United.

Not for the first time, Newcastle winning this season despite having the lower expected goals rating.

Although at least this time the differential was far smaller than in most NUFC wins this season, Newcastle having an expected goals rating of 0.71 to 0.99 for Palace, Steve Bruce’s team scoring with their only serious effort on goal.

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