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Latest Premier League Expected Goals stats will get a reaction after Newcastle 2 Southampton 1

11 months ago

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These were the previous two NUFC matches before the weekend’s game against Southampton.

Newcastle United 0.21 v 2.44 Manchester City (2-2)

Sheffield United 1.09 v 0.53 Newcastle United (0-2)

As you can see, the Expected Goals metric suggests Newcastle very lucky to pick up the four points, which is backed up by what we saw during the games, as NUFC only had the two clear chances in each game and scored all four times.

So now on to this past weekend’s Premier League Expected Goals stats calculated during games (actual final scoreline in brackets) by Understat:

Everton 2.04 v 1.26 Chelsea (3-1)

Bournemouth 0.15 v 3.04 Liverpool (0-3)

Tottenham 2.40 v 1.09 Burnley (5-0)

Watford 1.57 v 0.21 Crystal Palace (0-0)

Manchester City 2.07 v 1.63 Manchester United (1-2)

Aston Villa 1.24 v 4.03 Leicester (1-4)

Newcastle United 1.10 v 1.89 Southampton (2-1)

Norwich 0.59 v 0.71 Sheffield United (1-2)

Brighton 0.95 v 1.87 Wolves (2-2)

As you can see, in most cases the Expected Goals stats were very similar to the actual scoreline. In other words, on balance of play and chances created/shots at goal, teams got what they deserved.

The likes of Leicester, Liverpool, Tottenham and Everton all well worth their wins.

Man Utd stats were slightly less than Man City’s but not too far away, suggesting that wasn’t a totally unfair result, whilst Sheffield United just edged the stats in getting the win at Norwich.

Wolves look unlucky to get a draw instead of a win after having double the Expected Goals rating, whilst even more so for Watford who deserved more than a goalless draw against Palace.

As for Newcastle, not surprisingly the Expected Goals stats significantly favour Southampton (1.89 v 1.10), another game where NUFC win against the odds in terms of quality and number of chances created.


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