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Newcastle United rated 26% chance for relegation and 40% possibility to beat Bournemouth

12 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and this weekend.

The computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including the game at St James Park.

Their computer model gives Bournemouth a 33% chance of an away win, it is 27% for a draw and a 40% possibility of a Newcastle win.

They also have predictions as to how the final Premier League table will look, for winning the title it is Man City 44% and Liverpool 52%, the rest basically nowhere – Chelsea next highest at 3%.

Saturday’s visitors are having a very decent start and are currently seventh in the table, potentially going fifth if they beat Newcastle. The computer model even giving Bournemouth a 3% chance of ending the season top four.

Interesting to see how they rate the relegation battle, the bookies have Newcastle as a 2/1 chance (equivalent to a 33% chance) of going down at the moment but the computer model rates the percentage chances of relegation as:

67% Norwich

49% Watford

34% Southampton

26% Newcastle United

26% Villa

21% West Ham

18% Burnley

12% Brighton

11% Sheff Utd

9% Palace

8% Everton

7% Bournemouth

7% Wolves


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