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Newcastle United rated 26% chance for relegation and 40% possibility to beat Bournemouth

8 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and this weekend.

The computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including the game at St James Park.

Their computer model gives Bournemouth a 33% chance of an away win, it is 27% for a draw and a 40% possibility of a Newcastle win.

They also have predictions as to how the final Premier League table will look, for winning the title it is Man City 44% and Liverpool 52%, the rest basically nowhere – Chelsea next highest at 3%.

Saturday’s visitors are having a very decent start and are currently seventh in the table, potentially going fifth if they beat Newcastle. The computer model even giving Bournemouth a 3% chance of ending the season top four.

Interesting to see how they rate the relegation battle, the bookies have Newcastle as a 2/1 chance (equivalent to a 33% chance) of going down at the moment but the computer model rates the percentage chances of relegation as:

67% Norwich

49% Watford

34% Southampton

26% Newcastle United

26% Villa

21% West Ham

18% Burnley

12% Brighton

11% Sheff Utd

9% Palace

8% Everton

7% Bournemouth

7% Wolves


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