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Expected Goals stats show what Newcastle deserved v West Ham and where should be in PL table

1 year ago
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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.#

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So these are this weekend’s Premier League Expected Goals stats calculated during games by Understat:

Bournemouth 1.87 v 0.64 Man Utd (1-0)

Arsenal 1.03 v 1.51 Wolves (1-1)

Aston Villa 0.74 v 2.39 Liverpool (1-2)

Brighton 2.65 v 0.46 Norwich (2-0)

Man City 3.36 v 0.89 Southampton (2-1)

Sheffield United 2.58 v 0.72 Burnley (3-0)

West Ham 1.54 v 1.93 Newcastle United (2-3)

Watford 1.47 v 2.18 Chelsea (1-2)

Crystal Palace 0.44 v 0.98 Leicester (0-2)

Everton 1.16 v 0.24 Tottenham (1-1)

As you can see, in most cases the Expected Goals stats were very similar to the actual scoreline. In other words, on balance of play and chances created/shots at goal, teams got what they deserved.

So Liverpool (2.39) coming back to win against Villa (0.74) was very deserved.

The same with Man City (3.36) doing the same against Southampton (0.89).

As for Newcastle United, this is the first time this season that they have had a higher Expected Goals stat than the opposition team.

NUFC 1.93 against West Ham’s 1.54, indicating that the overall 3-2 away win was just about the right scoreline. Maybe surprising to some Newcastle fans that the margin isn’t wider but it reflects Steve Bruce going very defensive the final 40 minutes and the Hammers getting in more/better shooting positions.

Also interesting to see where everybody, including Newcastle United, should be in the Premier League table this season, according to Expected Goals.

How the Premier League table should now look according to Expected Goals – Table prepared via stats by Understat:

1. Manchester City – Real position = 2

Real points = 25 | Expected points = 26.80

2. Liverpool – Real position = 1

Real points = 31 | Expected points = 22.70

3. Manchester United – Real position = 10

Real points = 13 | Expected points = 20.48

4. Chelsea – Real position = 4

Real points = 23 | Expected points = 20.41

5. Everton – Real position = 17

Real points = 11 | Expected points = 17.82

6. Brighton – Real position = 8

Real points = 15 | Expected points = 16.31

7. Leicester City – Real position = 3

Real points = 23 | Expected points = 16.17

8. Wolverhampton Wanderers – Real position = 12

Real points = 13 | Expected points = 15.22

9. Burnley – Real position = 14

Real points = 12 | Expected points = 15.05

10. Arsenal – Real position = 5

Real points = 17 | Expected points = 14.22

11. Watford – Real position = 20

Real points = 5 | Expected points = 14.16

12. Sheffield United – Real position = 6

Real points = 16 | Expected points = 13.88

13. Bournemouth – Real position = 7

Real points = 16 | Expected points = 13.67

14. Tottenham Hotspur – Real position = 11

Real points = 13 | Expected points = 13.44

15. Southampton – Real position = 18

Real points = 8 | Expected points = 13.25

16. Aston Villa – Real position = 16

Real points = 11 | Expected points = 12.37

17. Crystal Palace – Real position = 9

Real points = 15 | Expected points = 12.36

18. West Ham United – Real position = 13

Real points = 13 | Expected points = 11.27

19. Newcastle United – Real position = 15

Real points = 12 | Expected points = 7.87

20. Norwich – Real position = 19

Real points = 7 | Expected points = 7.59

A small positive that Newcastle have moved off rock bottom in this expected goals table with Norwich dropping below but still a reminder of the lack of goal threat overall, interesting to see West Ham ranked 18th so far for the season

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