Newcastle United rated 36% chance for relegation and 27% possibility to beat Manchester United
Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and this weekend.
The computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.
They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including the game at St James Park.
Their computer model gives Manchester United a 46% chance of an away win, it is 27% for a draw and 27% possibility of a Newcastle win.
They also have predictions as to the how the final Premier League table will look, Man City a 99% chance of finishing top four and Liverpool 97%.
As for winning the title it is Man City 59% and Liverpool 38%, the rest basically nowhere – interesting they still rate Man City as favourites despite Liverpool already having a five points lead.
For Newcastle United, they are rated as somewhere less than 1% in terms of possibly winning the league (that would be zero chance), as well as less than % chance of qualifying for the Champions League…that would also be zero chance in reality (Manchester United are rated as 2% chance of going down, 20% to qualify for Champions League and less than 1% chance of winning the league – about as much chance as Newcastle!_.
Interesting to see how they rate the relegation battle, the bookies have Newcastle as a slight odds-on chance of going down at the moment but the computer model rates the percentage chances of relegation as:
36% Newcastle United
27% Sheff Utd
7% West Ham
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