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Newcastle United rated 36% chance for relegation and 27% possibility to beat Manchester United

1 year ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and this weekend.

The computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including the game at St James Park.

Their computer model gives Manchester United a 46% chance of an away win, it is 27% for a draw and 27% possibility of a Newcastle win.

They also have predictions as to the how the final Premier League table will look, Man City a 99% chance of finishing top four and Liverpool 97%.

As for winning the title it is Man City 59% and Liverpool 38%, the rest basically nowhere – interesting they still rate Man City as favourites despite Liverpool already having a five points lead.

For Newcastle United, they are rated as somewhere less than 1% in terms of possibly winning the league (that would be zero chance), as well as less than % chance of qualifying for the Champions League…that would also be zero chance in reality (Manchester United are rated as 2% chance of going down, 20% to qualify for Champions League and less than 1% chance of winning the league – about as much chance as Newcastle!_.

Interesting to see how they rate the relegation battle, the bookies have Newcastle as a slight odds-on chance of going down at the moment but the computer model rates the percentage chances of relegation as:

43% Villa

41% Watford

36% Newcastle United

35% Norwich

34% Brighton

27% Sheff Utd

16% Wolves

15% Southampton

13% Burnley

11% Palace

10% Bournemouth

7% Everton

7% West Ham


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