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Expected Goals stats show where Newcastle should be in Premier League table and outcome v Wolves

7 months ago
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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.#

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So these are this weekend’s Expected Goals stats from Understat:

Southampton 0.46 v 4.38 Leicester (0-9)

Manchester City 3.19 v 0.98 Aston Villa (3-0)

Brighton 1.15 v 1.05 Everton (3-2)

Watford 0.67 v 0.90 Bournemouth (0-0)

West Ham 2.34 v 1.16 Sheffield United (1-1)

Burnley 2.23 v 0.99 Chelsea (2-4)

Newcastle United 0.60 v 1.93 Wolverhampton Wanderers (1-1)

Arsenal 1.54 v 1.78 Crystal Palace (2-2)

Liverpool 2.19 v 1.35 Tottenham (2-1)

Norwich 0.89 v 4.51 Manchester United (1-3)

As you can see, in most cases the Expected Goals stats were very similar to the actual scoreline. In other words, on balance of play and chances created/shots at goal, teams got what they deserved.

So Palace (1.78) getting a draw at Arsenal (1.54) was no fluke, whilst Liverpool (2.19) coming back to win against Tottenham (1.35) was very deserved.

The one big stand out where you could say there was considerable luck was with Chelsea (0.99) and Burnley (2.23), Chelsea very lucky to have won so convincingly in terms of scoreline

As for Newcastle United, despite Steve Bruce claiming Newcastle played the best they have this season at home in the first half, the real world is a bit different. Apart from Southampton (0.46), Newcastle had the lowest (0.60) Expected Goals of any Premier League club, compared to Wolves 1.93, these stats showing Newcastle were very lucky to get a points and Wolves should have won easily.

Also interesting to see where everybody, including Newcastle United, should be in the Premier League table this season, according to Expected Goals.

How the Premier League table should now look according to Expected Goals – Table prepared via stats by Understat:

1. Manchester City – Real position = 2

Real points = 22 | Expected points = 23.99

2. Liverpool – Real position = 1

Real points = 28 | Expected points = 20.23

3. Manchester United – Real position = 7

Real points = 13 | Expected points = 20.05

4. Chelsea – Real position = 4

Real points = 20 | Expected points = 18.52

5. Everton – Real position = 16

Real points = 10 | Expected points = 15.55

6. Burnley – Real position = 13

Real points = 12 | Expected points = 14.79

7. Leicester City – Real position = 3

Real points = 20 | Expected points = 14.34

8. Brighton – Real position = 14

Real points = 12 | Expected points = 13.58

9. Wolverhampton Wanderers – Real position = 12

Real points = 12 | Expected points = 13.49

10. Watford – Real position = 20

Real points = 5 | Expected points = 13.30

11. Arsenal – Real position = 5

Real points = 16 | Expected points = 13.24

12. Southampton – Real position = 18

Real points = 8 | Expected points = 13.14

13. Tottenham Hotspur – Real position = 11

Real points = 12 | Expected points = 12.98

14. Aston Villa – Real position = 15

Real points = 11 | Expected points = 12.00

15. Crystal Palace – Real position = 6

Real points = 15 | Expected points = 11.55

16. Sheffield United – Real position = 8

Real points = 13 | Expected points = 11.27

17. Bournemouth – Real position = 9

Real points = 13 | Expected points = 11.29

18. West Ham United – Real position = 10

Real points = 13 | Expected points = 10.20

19. Norwich – Real position = 19

Real points = 7 | Expected points = 7.41

20. Newcastle United – Real position = 17

Real points = 9 | Expected points = 6.20

This is surely no surprise as Newcastle struggle to create chances and were very lucky to get draws against Brighton & Watford and now Wolves, plus the last four PL games have seen Newcastle with only four shots on target in total.

This includes only two shots on target against Man Utd, with the only other win this season came despite only two against Tottenham. Creating very little otherwise in these and the other games.

Unless Steve Bruce plays more positively and has his side getting into positions where they regularly threaten, Newcastle’s luck is not going to hold.

As this league table based on Expected Goals shows, they could and should be rock bottom now based on the way they have played.

On the other hand, the small margins are very much going against Watford when it comes to turning general play into goals and points.

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