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Expected Goals stats show where Newcastle should be in Premier League table and outcome v Chelsea

9 months ago
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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.#

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So these are this weekend’s Expected Goals stats from Understat:

Everton 2.23 v 0.46 West Ham (2-0)

Aston Villa 2.97 v 1.32 Brighton (2-1)

Bournemouth 0.68 v 0.40 Norwich (0-0)

Chelsea 2.30 v 0.20 Newcastle United (1-0)

Leicester 0.83 v 1.80 Burnley (2-1)

Tottenham 0.89 v 0.85 Watford (1-1)

Wolves 0.89 v 1.38 Southampton (1-1)

Crystal Palace 0.62 4.02 Manchester City (0-2)

Manchester United 0.79 v 1.03 Liverpool (1-1)

As you can, in most cases the Expected Goals stats were very similar to the actual scoreline. In other words, on balance of play and chances created/shots at goal, teams got what they deserved.

So Waford (0.85) getting a draw at Spurs (0.89) was no fluke, whilst Liverpool (1.03) coming back to draw at Man Utd (0.79) was very deserved.

The one big stand out where you could say there was considerable luck was with Leicester (0.89) and Burnley (1.80), the Foxes very lucky to have won.

As for Newcastle United, despite Steve Bruce claiming his team were unlucky and had created ‘unbelievable opportunities’, the real world is very different. Newcastle had by far the lowest (0.20) Expected Goals of any Premier League club, embarrassingly low, compared to Chelsea’s 2.30. These stats showing it was Chelsea who were very unlucky not Newcastle and should have won easily.

Only Man City had a bigger Expected Goals advantage this weekend, they had 4.02 compared to Palace’s 0.62 as they strolled to victory.

Also interesting to see where everybody, including Newcastle United, should be in the Premier League table this season, according to Expected Goals.

How the Premier League table should now look according to Expected Goals – Table prepared via stats by Talksport:

1. Manchester City – Real position = 2

Real points = 19 | Expected points = 21.33

2. Liverpool – Real position = 1

Real points = 25 | Expected points = 18.22

3. Chelsea – Real position = 4

Real points = 17 | Expected points = 18.03

4. Manchester United – Real position = 13

Real points = 10 | Expected points = 17.12

5. Everton – Real position = 14

Real points = 10 | Expected points = 14.37

6. Southampton – Real position = 17

Real points = 8 | Expected points = 13.11

7. Burnley – Real position = 8

Real points = 12 | Expected points = 12.46

8. Tottenham Hotspur – Real position = 7

Real points = 12 | Expected points = 12.23

9. Watford – Real position = 20

Real points = 4 | Expected points = 12.16

10. Brighton – Real position = 16

Real points = 9 | Expected points = 12.11

11. Aston Villa – Real position = 11

Real points = 11 | Expected points = 11.75

12. Leicester City – Real position = 3

Real points = 17 | Expected points = 11.38

13. Wolverhampton Wanderers – Real position = 12

Real points = 11 | Expected points = 11.08

14. Arsenal – Real position = 5 (Have game in hand away to Sheff Utd on Monday night)

Real points = 15 | Expected points = 10.81

15. Crystal Palace – Real position = 6

Real points = 14 | Expected points = 9.94

16. Bournemouth – Real position = 9

Real points = 12 | Expected points = 9.79

17. Sheffield United – Real position = 15 (Have game in hand home to Arsenal on Monday night)

Real points = 9 | Expected points = 9.50

18. West Ham United – Real position = 10

Real points = 12 | Expected points = 7.89

19. Norwich – Real position = 19

Real points = 7 | Expected points = 7.37

20. Newcastle United – Real position = 18

Real points = 8 | Expected points = 5.79

This is surely no surprise as Newcastle struggle to create chances and were very lucky to get draws against Brighton and Watford, whilst the wins were achieved with one shot on target against Man Utd and only two against Tottenham. Creating very little otherwise in these and the other games.

Unless Steve Bruce plays more positively and has his side getting into positions where they regularly threaten, Newcastle’s luck is not going to hold and indeed, NUFC are third bottom even with carrying the luck.

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