Newcastle United rated 24% chance for relegation and 47% possibility to beat Brighton
Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and this weekend.
The computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.
They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including the game at St James Park.
Their computer model gives Brighton an 25% chance of an away win, it is 28% for a draw and 47% possibility of a Newcastle win.
Which of course is absolutely ridiculous, as Newcastle should never be as high as 3% for a possible victory…
They also have predictions as to the how the final Premier League table will look, Man City a 98% chance of finishing top four and Liverpool 95%.
As for winning the title it is Man City 53% and Liverpool 40%, the rest basically nowhere – interesting they still rate Man City as slight favourites despite Liverpool already having a five points lead.
For Newcastle United, they are rated as somewhere less than 1% in terms of possibly winning the league (that would be zero chance), though now still a 2% chance of qualifying for the Champions League…
Interesting to see how they rate the relegation battle, the bookies have Newcastle as a pretty much 50/50 chance of going down at the moment but the computer model rates the percentage chances of relegation as:
39% Sheff Utd
24% Newcastle United
12% West Ham
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