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Newcastle United rated 24% chance for relegation and 47% possibility to beat Brighton

1 year ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and this weekend.

The computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including the game at St James Park.

Their computer model gives Brighton an 25% chance of an away win, it is 28% for a draw and 47% possibility of a Newcastle win.

Which of course is absolutely ridiculous, as Newcastle should never be as high as 3% for a possible victory…

They also have predictions as to the how the final Premier League table will look, Man City a 98% chance of finishing top four and Liverpool 95%.

As for winning the title it is Man City 53% and Liverpool 40%, the rest basically nowhere – interesting they still rate Man City as slight favourites despite Liverpool already having a five points lead.

For Newcastle United, they are rated as somewhere less than 1% in terms of possibly winning the league (that would be zero chance), though now still a 2% chance of qualifying for the Champions League…

Interesting to see how they rate the relegation battle, the bookies have Newcastle as a pretty much 50/50 chance of going down at the moment but the computer model rates the percentage chances of relegation as:

41% Villa

39% Sheff Utd

34% Brighton

32% Watford

26% Norwich

24% Newcastle United

21% Burnley

18% Wolves

14% Bournemouth

14% Southampton

13% Palace

12% West Ham


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