Get your daily update and weekly newsletter by signing up today!


Newcastle United rated 22% chance for relegation and 3% possibility to beat Liverpool – Ridiculous

1 year ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and this weekend.

The computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including the game at Anfield.

Their computer model gives Liverpool an 85% chance of a win, it is 12% for a draw and 3% possibility of a Newcastle win.

Which of course is absolutely ridiculous, as Newcastle should never be as high as 3% for a possible victory…

They also have predictions as to the how the final Premier League table will look, Man City a 98% chance of finishing top four and Liverpool 95%.

As for winning the title it is Man City 59% and Liverpool 36%, the rest basically nowhere.

For Newcastle United, they are rated as somewhere less than 1% in terms of possibly winning the league (that would be zero chance), though a 2% chance of qualifying for the Champions League…

Interesting to see how they rate the relegation battle, the bookies have Newcastle as a pretty much 50/50 chance of going down at the moment but the computer model rates the percentage chances of relegation as:

40% Norwich

37% Villa

35% Watford

33% Brighton

32% Sheff Utd

22% Newcastle United

19% Bournemouth

18% Burnley

17% Southampton

13% Wolves

11% Palace

11% West Ham


If you would like to feature on The Mag, submit your article to [email protected]

Have your say

© 2021 The Mag. All Rights Reserved. Design & Build by Mediaworks