Newcastle United rated 22% chance for relegation and 3% possibility to beat Liverpool – Ridiculous
Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and this weekend.
The computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.
They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including the game at Anfield.
Their computer model gives Liverpool an 85% chance of a win, it is 12% for a draw and 3% possibility of a Newcastle win.
Which of course is absolutely ridiculous, as Newcastle should never be as high as 3% for a possible victory…
They also have predictions as to the how the final Premier League table will look, Man City a 98% chance of finishing top four and Liverpool 95%.
As for winning the title it is Man City 59% and Liverpool 36%, the rest basically nowhere.
For Newcastle United, they are rated as somewhere less than 1% in terms of possibly winning the league (that would be zero chance), though a 2% chance of qualifying for the Champions League…
Interesting to see how they rate the relegation battle, the bookies have Newcastle as a pretty much 50/50 chance of going down at the moment but the computer model rates the percentage chances of relegation as:
32% Sheff Utd
22% Newcastle United
11% West Ham
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