Football finance expert brilliant takedown of Peter Kenyon Newcastle United takeover brochure
The Peter Kenyon alleged new bid for Newcastle United has certainly given fans something else to think about.
Although I don’t think you can really call it a welcome diversion from the relegation struggle.
The breaking news prompted more stress, anger and frustration from Newcastle supporters, rather than inspiring any fresh hope of a release from Mike Ashley’s clutches.
Fans remain highly sceptical as to whether Mike Ashley has any genuine intention of selling the club.
Whilst with Peter Kenyon’s reported close links to the Newcastle owner, it hardly helps the situation.
Nor indeed Kenyon’s last claimed attempt to lead a takeover, the last we heard of that was back in January when he was offering investors the chance to be a part of it if they could come up with £1m.
When the latest supposed bid was made public on Thursday night, it came with a 46 page brochure that had been sent out by Peter Kenyon and his new co-bidders, to potential investors.
Not surprisingly, the brochure claiming Steve Bruce has had ‘unparalleled success in Europe’ grabbed most headlines, the truth being that his success and experience in European football is on a par with Sunderland’s entire history of playing in Europe.
Interestingly though, a top football finance expert has given a more detailed step by step, page by page, assessment of the Peter Kenyon brochure.
Very interesting reading, although it doesn’t exactly make you think Mike Ashley will be leaving any time soon…at least not if we are relying on this latest Peter Kenyon cunning plan.
Kieran Maguire lectures in football finance at Liverpool University and also has his own Price Of Football website.
‘A deeper look at the 46 page brochure from Peter Kenyon trying to persuade people to invest in Newcastle United deal. Page 3 ‘Broadcast revenues booming’…the present PL domestic rights deal 10% lower than previous. Grow revenues by ‘player transfers’ don’t sell your best assets.’
‘Page 4 ‘One of the top football brands in the world’, nonsense. ‘11 trophies’ but ignores none for 50 years.’
‘Page 5, comparison to Spurs in 2004 valid as lost opportunity, but that ship has sailed & Spurs now playing CL regularly & in a money making machine of a stadium.’
‘Page 6, comparison to MUFC MCFC LFC Arsenal CFC & Spurs. All of whom have won trophies or regular Champions/Europa League participation which has driven valuation. More appropriate comparison Everton, West Ham etc surely?’
‘Page 9: Growth of European football rights. True but Newcastle not in Champions League/Europa League.’
‘Page 10: Implied that value of Newcastle cheap as revenue multiple lower than Valencia etc. Ignores the fact that all the other clubs in table have next to no chance of relegation but do participate in CL/EL.’
‘Page 12 ‘Club values expected to rise in 5-10 years due to broadcasting & commercial revenues’ Broadcasting revenues now flat & even Manchester United now seeing no growth in commercial.’
‘Page 13: Premier League rights up 13% for 2019/22…seems optimistic. Ignores fall in domestic rights.’
‘Page 18: Squad valued at $226m ignores some of those players on loan from other clubs.’
‘Page 21: Kenyon plans to grow commercial revenue from £22m to £61m but no details how. Is it realistic to expect NUFC to leap ahead of West Ham, Everton etc so significantly?’
‘Page 28: Some assumptions realistic but commercial income looks high, Kenyon taking out £15m as mgt fee, wages set to double in 6 years yet transfer fee amortisation falls by £20m in 2024 seems crazy.’
‘Page 29: Cash flow forecast: Ignores payment of £175m to Ashley in 3 years time.’
‘Page 31: Assumes Ashley will accept a three year IOU for £175m.’
‘Page 33: Kenyon & Co get 5% of shares to begin with plus a further 2.5% if value of club doubles.
‘Page 35: Complicated set up structure involving Cayman Islands tax haven.’
‘Page 39: Refers to short term cost control wage cap in Premier League…which was scrapped in the summer.’
‘Page 40: States overseas TV rights split evenly between the clubs but this has been changed.’
‘Page 41: Assumes 12th place finish this season…rising to 7th and Europa League by 2022.’
‘Page 42: Assumes rise to 7th place achieved on a net spend on players of £10-15m per season from 2020/21 onwards.’
‘(I) Forgot page 17, said Newcastle have been in top division for 87 years out of last 89, utter nonsense. Distinct lack of the ‘R’ word in the 46 pages.’
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