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Predicted Newcastle United points total by close of 2019 in Premier League

2 months ago
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Now that Newcastle United are as good as set with regards to the side we can put out against Arsenal on Sunday in the Premier League, I think it’s fair to start making some predictions about what may or may not happen with this team this coming season.

BBC Sport’s Phil McNulty has gone for a headline grabbing relegation for NUFC as the bottom club and whilst I’m expecting a struggle this season, I do feel he has made this prediction merely to stoke a few reactions.

We WILL beat a few teams this season so to finish 20th would be a real disaster and one I won’t predict…and that is coming from a seasoned pessimist.

Below is my honest prediction for how each Premier League game will go (best case scenario) up until the end of 2019.

If you’re a glass half full sort of person or someone who doesn’t like a healthy dose of realism then look away now, the following won’t make good reading.

Arsenal (h) L
Norwich (a) W
Tottenham (a) L
Watford (h) L
Liverpool (a) L
Brighton (h) W
Leicester (a) L
Manchester United (h) L
Chelsea (a) L
Wolves (h) D
West Ham (a) L
Bournemouth (h) D
Aston Villa (a) L
Manchester City (h) L
Sheffield United (a) W
Southampton (h) W
Burnley (a) D
Crystal Palace (h) W
Manchester United (a) L
Everton (h) L

That’s around 18 points after 20 game gone as my best case scenario and some of those results I have gone with a little bit of hoping for the best, instead of falling on the pessimistic side of the fence. Average that out over a full season and you’re hitting 34 points or thereabouts.

Now there’s always a freak result somewhere throughout the season, like a defeat against a side you would expect something from or a win against all the odds. Last season we beat Manchester City at St James’ when nobody gave us any hope. Similarly, we lost at home to Brighton and even I had us down to beat them.

Look at my predictions above and tell me where a drastic amount of extra points can be achieved. Yes we may beat Manchester United at home, or Burnley away, but that would be the bonus that would be offset by losing or drawing a game I would predict a win from.

Now, other teams ARE going to struggle and I would certainly fear for the promoted clubs but even they have recruited well in an attempt at staying in the division, Aston Villa being particularly big spenders. The trouble is the promoted teams have momentum, so do some of the teams that were in the Premier League last year – we don’t. We’ve upset the apple cart once again after a period of half-decent stability under Rafa despite the obstacles that were placed in his way.

My biggest concern is that despite our recent splurge on Joelinton and Saint-Maximin, I remain lacking in any confidence whatsoever that Steve Bruce can get the best out of these attacking players and I don’t see any evidence that he can get the best out of what was our strong point last season – the defence.

That’s the worry when you put a no-hoper of a Head Coach in charge. You can dress the no-hoper up in whatever clothes you like by giving him whatever players you can afford but you end up with the same thing. We tried the same policy before with Steve McClaren and I don’t remember that turning out too grand.

Going further back, we gave Alan Pardew a good bunch of players and even with his limited ability, the players excelled and fluked a 5th place before normality resumed. You can’t tell me that this squad has anywhere near the quality that Pardew had – maybe in defence but certainly not in midfield or attack.

This leaves a recipe for absolute disaster if we are relying on an untried forward line and a defensive unit that is unlikely to be as sound as it was last season. Think otherwise? You’re more confident than I am.

Many fans predicted that the second Rafa Benitez left (and took his backroom team with him) the whole shebang would come crashing down. You don’t just take the stability that we had last season and throw that to the wind without consequences. Our outlet (and 11 goal a season striker) Salomon Rondon was as close to a sure fire thing that you’d ever likely to find and I don’t think Joelinton will provide the same sort of target man stature as Rondon. In swapping the two we’ve completely changed the make up of the team.

For all his critics, nobody can argue that the Perez sale won’t affect us greatly. He frustrated the life out of me at times but you can’t just chuck the 12 goals away and hope to find them just with the click of your fingers. He WILL be missed greatly despite what a lot of fans think.

You’re looking at Almiron, Joelinton, Maximin and Gayle to find the 23 goals we’ve lost from last season in Rondon and Perez, now that’s a tough ask bearing in mind Bruce is unlikely to be playing them all at the same time.

Finally, on a positive and (slightly) optimistic note, let’s say Joelinton bags 10 goals, Almiron, Gayle and Maximin get five each. Will those goals help add to my (glass half full) 18 points by January 2020? It may do but it will STILL be a season of struggle unless there are some of you out there that think that this squad is REALLY going to start tearing up trees with Steve Bruce in charge.

If you DO honestly think that, then you have more faith in the Head Coach than I do and I’ll have some of whatever you’re drinking…

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