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BBC Sport statistician explains why Newcastle United one of three Premier League relegation candidates

1 year ago

An interesting one from BBC Sport, as they have published a report put together by their football statistician, looking at those most likely to be relegated and backing it up with stats that point to why they are one of the most vulnerable.

The report putting three existing Premier League clubs up alongside the three promoted, looking at the strengths and weaknesses of each.

Quite surprising to see an opening stat reveal that only 11 promoted clubs have gone straight back down in these past 10 Premier League seasons, probably fewer than you would have guessed. So on average, one of the three relegation spaces will be taken up by a club just promoted.

For the three promoted clubs this time, the BBC Sport statistician picks out:

Norwich – They scored an impressive 93 goals last season but also conceded 57, a fair few for the club that went up as champions.

Sheffield United – The Blades kept more clean sheets and no team conceded fewer goals in the Championship last season.

Aston Villa – The stand out stat for them is how much money they have invested in the team. However, the point is made that they have brought in a lot of their targets early so they can integrate, unlike Fulham last season, or indeed Newcastle this summer.

As for current Premier League clubs at risk of relegation, the BBC Sport statistician has picked out Newcastle United, Brighton and Burnley.

The big issue for Newcastle United is ‘Where are the goals?’ and the massive pressure now on Joelinton, who only scored seven Bundesliga goals last season.

In terms of stats, with players (Rondon, Perez, Joselu, Kenedy) leaving this summer, Newcastle have lost 62% of the goals scored last season, a higher percentage by far than any other PL club.

For Newcastle, last season’s goalscorers that still remain at the club are Schar (4), Clark (3), Ritchie (2) and then all with one each: Hayden, Longstaff, Atsu, Muto, Yedlin and Shelvey (there was also one own goal included in the 42 NUFC PL goals).

It is a double question/challenge really…

How many goals can Joelinton & Allan Saint-Maximin score AND can the players still here from last season increase their goalscoring power?

The BBC Sport write-up on Newcastle United:

‘Newcastle: Where are the goals?

Last season: 13th in Premier League

Despite finishing 11 points clear of the relegation zone last season, the departures of manager Rafael Benitez, top scorer Ayoze Perez and Salomon Rondon could see Newcastle in trouble this season.

Those two players scored 23 of the club’s 42 goals in the Premier League last season, meaning that, along with the exits of Joselu and Kenedy, the club has lost almost two-thirds of its goals over the summer.

The signings of £40m striker Joelinton and £16.5m winger Allan Saint-Maximin – who scored seven and six league goals last season respectively – will need to fill that goalscoring void, as will the returning Dwight Gayle, who scored 23 goals in the Championship on loan at West Brom last season.

With two top-half finishes and two relegations, Steve Bruce’s record in the Premier League averages out to around 43 points a season, slightly worse than Benitez’s record at Newcastle of 45 points a season.’


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