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Michael Owen predicts Newcastle v Southampton – Stats suggest 1 in 17 chance of coming true

3 months ago
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Michael Owen has been looking ahead to Saturday’s late afternoon kick-off.

A match which sees 15th against 16th as Newcastle take on Southampton.

Both clubs look safe but Owen thinks Southampton need one more victory to make absolutely sure.

A win on Saturday would take them to 39 points, once more than Newcastle.

However, Michael Owen points out that Rafa’s players have won five of their last six Premier League games at home.

The odd one out saw Newcastle have 18 shots to Crystal Palace’s three but Roy Hodgson’s team score with their only shot on target.

Southampton have won three of their last four games, home and away and as Michael Owen points out, under new boss Ralph Hasenhuttl they have an overall record of eight wins (three draws and seven defeats) in his 18 games in charge.

That average of a point and a half a game would have seen Southampton currently in seventh if taken over all 33 matches this season.

Michael Owen reaches the conclusion of tipping a draw but that arguably is a very long longshot based on this season’s evidence.

Away from home Newcastle have more draws (seven) than any other PL club, with three wins and seven defeats.

However, at home, NUFC have drawn only one of 17 games, that being the dreadful 0-0 with Fulham just before Christmas. The overall home form now showing a very respectable seven wins, though nine defeats as well…only Huddersfield have lost more at home.

Whilst a draw is statistically unlikely, the chance of goals shouldn’t be.

Newcastle have scored 12 in their last six home matches, whilst Southampton have 11 in their last six games (home and away).

Both clubs showing improvement recently in that department as none of the top 14 clubs has scored so few overall as Newcastle and Southampton.

Rafa Benitez can also take heart from the fact that outside of the bottom three, only Burnley and Bournemouth have conceded more than Southampton’s 54.

A game that should deliver goals and one that Newcastle can and maybe should win. Could be a good one.

Michael Owen talking to BetVictor:

“Southampton have won four of their last six PL games but will probably think they need one more win before they can consider themselves safe from the drop.

“Eight wins from 18 games shows what a good job Ralph Hasenhuttl has done since he took charge at St Mary’s.

“United picked up a very good three points at the King Power Stadium last Friday and they have won five of their last six home games at St James’ Park.

“I feel they may have to settle for a point against this progressive Saints’ side.

“Tip: Game to finish in a draw at 85/40.”

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