There are many stats being produced today to try and measure how well, or not, teams are performing, but Expected Goals is now widely seen as the best guide.
In Premier League matches you get totals of how many shots altogether a team has, as well as how many of those are in target, but these stats don’t differentiate between clear chances, half-chances and ‘shots’ from distance that are in reality pass backs or hitting the corner flag.
With expected goals, it takes into account all kinds of factors, which when taken together, tells you how good a chance really was and so in effect, if you add all of these together during matches, you get to find out whether clubs deserved to win on their general play.
Expected Goals explanation/definition:
‘Expected goals measures the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance.
Adding up a player or team’s expected goals can give us an indication of how many goals a player or team should have scored on average, given the shots they have taken.’
After 20 games, the stats on expected games have been collated for all Premier League clubs, coming up with some interesting conclusions.
At the very top, Man City are first based on expected goals, suggesting they haven’t been doing that much wrong apart from not finishing enough of their chances and/or not carrying their luck.
Whilst on the other hand Liverpool have eight points more than you would expect them to have based on expected goals stats in their 20 matches.
Many/most clubs aren’t many places different in the real Premier League compared to their expected goals position, though Arsenal are rated three positions higher, suggesting they have been taking a very good proportion of their chances and I know Aubameyang has been clinical in his finishing this season.
At the bottom, Fulham should be outside the bottom three based on expected goals, whilst Newcastle United SHOULD be in the relegation zone based on them. The Cottagers lacking in taking their chances, whilst the likes of Rondon making the very most of the feeble supply line at Newcastle.
In fact, all of the clubs at the bottom of the real Premier League table should have more points than they actually do, apart from Newcastle United.
Rafa Benitez has talked of it being a ‘miracle’ if Newcastle stay up and in terms of expected goals and general play/threat so far, maybe the Magpies are really riding their luck so far.
The Premier League table based on expected goals (in brackets actual PL position), stats collated by Talksport:
- Manchester City (2nd)
Real points = 47 | Expected points = 46.62
- Liverpool (1st)
Real points = 54 | Expected points = 45.53
- Chelsea (4th)
Real points = 43 | Expected points = 41.05
- Tottenham (3rd)
Real points = 45 | Expected points = 34.73
- Wolves (7th)
Real points = 29 | Expected points = 33.14
- Manchester United (6th)
Real points = 35 | Expected points = 30.85
- Watford (9th)
Real points = 28 | Expected points = 30.14
- Arsenal (5th)
Real points = 38 | Expected points = 29.62
- Leicester City (8th)
Real points = 28 | Expected points = 28.73
- Everton (10th)
Real points = 27 | Expected points = 25.84
- Bournemouth (12th)
Real points = 26 | Expected points = 25.57
- Crystal Palace (14th)
Real points = 19 | Expected points = 24.92
- West Ham (11th)
Real points = 27 | Expected points = 23.70
- Southampton (17th)
Real points = 15 | Expected points = 22.99
- Cardiff City (16th)
Real points = 18 | Expected points = 20.55
- Brighton (13th)
Real points = 25 | Expected points = 20.45
- Fulham (19th)
Real points = 14 | Expected points = 18.74
- Newcastle United (15th)
Real points = 18 | Expected points = 17.42
- Burnley (18th)
Real points = 15 | Expected points = 16.86
- Huddersfield Town (20th)
Real points = 10 | Expected points = 16.57