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Opinion

These bookies odds for Newcastle v Watford just make no sense

9 months ago
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It is Newcastle v Watford on Saturday.

Only 10 matches into the season but already, 16 points and 12 places in the table separate the two clubs.

Watford seventh with 19 points, Newcastle 19th with three points.

Interesting then to see what the bookies make of this game.

Obviously, they have no allegiance to anything but making money, so they price up matches on what they see as the most likelihood, based mainly on form.

How then do you explain them making Newcastle favourites to beat Watford???

It isn’t by much, Newcastle 17/10 to win and Watford 15/8, but it just doesn’t make any sense.

Newcastle United could of course end up winning but the form/stats doesn’t suggest that is likely.

Newcastle’s form this season is won 0, drawn 3 and lost 7, whilst Watford is won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3.

Newcastle have lost all five home matches, whilst Watford have won at Wolves and Burnley as well as drawing at Fulham, their only defeat on the road at Arsenal.

Overall, their only other two losses were at home to Man Utd and a 4-0 when Bournemouth visited, however, that day it was a bit of a one-off as they had a player sent off on 32 minutes and from the resultant penalty, the Cherries made it 2-0 and Watford had to play for an hour with only 10 men.

Having beaten Palace, Spurs and Brighton at home, Watford easily dispatched Huddersfield, the only club below Newcastle, 3-0 last weekend.

At the same time Newcastle were lucky to get a goalless draw at Southampton, having not had a single attempt on target.

The only explanation for the bookies taking this position is that they clearly must think NUFC have simply been very unlucky and are actually far better than they have shown so far, plus Newcastle United (bizarrely, considering Mike Ashley’s lack of transfer backing) will still be seen as a ‘big’ club, no matter what a shambles it currently is.

I just hope the bookies are right on this occasion…

Newcastle v Watford Match Betting:

Newcastle win 17/10Draw 11/5Watford win 15/8

All Newcastle v Watford betting HERE

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