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BBC Sport ‘super computer’ prediction for Watford v Newcastle and John Motson’s notes

12 months ago
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It is Watford v Newcastle on Saturday afternoon, with thirteenth against tenth.

In theory, the Hornets could overtake the Magpies with a win, but it would take a victory by six goals to do so.

Watford could technically still go down but with the points differences, number of clubs involved, and the low number of goals remaining, that is only a mathematical possibility.

What you can say for sure, is that remarkably, Watford have had four different managers during Rafa Benitez’ 26 months at Newcastle.

BBC Sport have published the likelihood of either club winning, based on the predictions of  ‘super computer’ SAM.

(SAM (Sports Analytics Machine) is a super-computer created by Professor Ian McHale at the University of Liverpool that is used to predict the outcome of football matches.

SAM’s verdict is…

Most probable score: 1-1

Probability of home win: 41%

Probability of away win: 28%

Probability of draw: 31%

Match of The Day commentator John Motson’s pre-match notes:

“This game may have the look of an end-of-season dead rubber but the futures of the respective managers in the Vicarage Road dugouts adds plenty of intrigue.

“Despite Watford’s struggles of late, Javi Gracia could easily help the Hornets better their previous best Premier League finish of 13th, only to then find himself out of a job in the summer.

“Magpies manager Rafa Benitez has enjoyed far better results of late but there are no guarantees about his future either.

“The Spaniard has dropped less-than-subtle hints of late that he could head for the exit if owner Mike Ashley doesn’t give him funds to invest.”

Match Facts:

Newcastle have never won a top-flight away game against Watford (Drawn 4, Lost 3).

The Hornets have only scored nine times in 13 matches in all competitions since Javi Gracia took over.

Only two teams – West Ham and Stoke City – have conceded more league goals than Watford’s tally of 62 this season.

Their tally of 30 home league goals conceded is a joint Premier League-high with Bournemouth.

This will be Rafa Benitez’ 300th Premier League match as a manager.

Watford v Newcastle v Match Betting:

Watford win 29/10Draw 23/10NUFC win 21/10

Both teams to score in 1st half 7/2Ritchie to score first goal 13/1NUFC win 1-0 8/1

All Watford v Newcastle betting HERE

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