It is Tottenham v Newcastle tonight.
The home side have picked up only four points from their last 12, leaving them vulnerable to missing out on Champions League qualification, with Chelsea only two points behind.
As for Newcastle, the psychological lift of a top ten finish is now under threat after three defeats on the bounce
BBC Sport have published the likelihood of either club winning, based on the predictions of ‘super computer’ SAM.
(SAM (Sports Analytics Machine) is a super-computer created by Professor Ian McHale at the University of Liverpool that is used to predict the outcome of football matches.
SAM’s verdict is…
Most probable score: 2-0
Probability of home win: 86%
Probability of away win: 4%
Probability of draw: 10%
That figure of 4% chance of a Newcastle win, is the smallest I think I have ever seen for any team, never mind just Newcastle, when it comes to their Super Computer model.
In these match facts below, it does give you a little bit of reasoning as to why this might not be too wide of the mark…
The BBC statisticians coming up with the fact that Newcastle have only won one of their last 50 games away from home against clubs in the PL top four, with eight draws and a nightmare 41 defeats.
They also to an extent put a warning sign alongside Ayoze Perez’ recent form, he ma have scored four goals in his last six PL matches but only scored four in the previous 48.
As for Tottenham, hard to see them failing to score tonight…
When losing 1-0 at West Brom on Saturday, it was the first time in 24 PL games, plus is over six years since Spurs last failed to beat a promoted club at home.
Having said that, we can cling onto the fact that Newcastle won their last three matches at White Hart Lane.
However, as you can see below, the bookies don’t give us much of a chance either, so time for the NUFC players to prove them wrong.
Spurs also failed to score for the first time in 24 Premier League matches in Saturday’s defeat at West Brom.
They could go consecutive Premier League matches without scoring for the first time since May 2015.
However, Tottenham have won their last 17 Premier League home games against promoted sides since a 2-1 defeat by Norwich City in April 2012.
The Magpies have only won once in 50 Premier League away matches against sides starting the day in the top four (D8, L41).
Newcastle have also lost their last six matches at Wembley Stadium since a 3-1 victory over Manchester City in the 1955 FA Cup final. They last played at Wembley in April 2000, losing 2-1 to Chelsea in an FA Cup semi-final.
Ayoze Perez has four goals in his last six Premier League appearances, as many as in his previous 48 top-flight matches.
Tottenham v Newcastle v Match Betting:
All Tottenham v Newcastle betting HERE