It is Newcastle v Chelsea on Sunday afternoon, with fifth against tenth.
Chelsea need to win [and Liverpool lose] to get fourth place and Champions League football.
Newcastle need to win to try and ensure they stay tenth for a top half finish.
BBC Sport have published the likelihood of either club winning, based on the predictions of ‘super computer’ SAM.
(SAM (Sports Analytics Machine) is a super-computer created by Professor Ian McHale at the University of Liverpool that is used to predict the outcome of football matches.
SAM’s verdict is…
Most probable score: 0-1
Probability of home win: 20%
Probability of away win: 56%
Probability of draw: 24%
Match of The Day commentator Guy Mowbray’s pre-match notes:
“It’s considered vulgar to talk money, yet with Newcastle the topic of finance is never far away.
“Is the club any closer to being sold? How much will Rafa Benitez get to spend this summer?
“With £2m more in prize money per Premier League place, there could be a small transfer budget boost from winning this final game. Lose – and they could potentially drop five places and lose £10m!
“Chelsea missing out on the top four will cost them much more.
“They’ll obviously start by believing they can still get there, but if news comes through of Liverpool beating Brighton, then this game – prize-wise – becomes more important to Newcastle than the FA Cup finalists.”
Newcastle are unbeaten in their last four home Premier League games against Chelsea, scoring at least twice in each match (W3, D1).
Newcastle have lost their last four PL games but have conceded just six goals in their last 10 Premier League home games.
Newcastle could win a top-flight home match against Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United in a single season for the first time since 1968-69.
Last season’s champions Chelsea are 20 points worse off than at the same stage last season. They’ve also scored 18 fewer goals.
Olivier Giroud has scored eight goals in nine Premier League games against Newcastle, more than against any other opponent.
Newcastle v Chelsea Match Betting:
All Newcastle v Chelsea betting HERE