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BBC Sport ‘super computer’ prediction for Newcastle v Arsenal

4 years ago

It is Newcastle v Arsenal on Sunday afternoon, with tenth against sixth.

BBC Sport have published the likelihood of either club winning, based on the predictions of  ‘super computer’ SAM.

(SAM (Sports Analytics Machine) is a super-computer created by Professor Ian McHale at the University of Liverpool that is used to predict the outcome of football matches.

SAM’s verdict is…

Most probable score: 1-1

Probability of home win: 28%

Probability of away win: 27%

Probability of draw: 45%

Some interesting facts below, including that only four clubs have picked up more than Newcastle’s 19 points since the turn of the year.

Match of The Day commentator Guy Mowbray’s pre-match notes:

Newcastle are staying up. Fact.

“An old ‘Rafa-ism’ that’s true despite his understandable caution until they’ve got to 40 points.

“They’d get there with a win here, and must have a great chance against an Arsenal side coming off the back of Moscow on Thursday and now prioritising the Europa League.

“Arsene Wenger will make some changes, although one in particular will surely strengthen the Gunners’ chances of a first domestic away win of 2018.

“Cup-tied in Europe, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has taken to the Premier League nicely, and could score in a fifth successive game – against a club he nearly joined, in a part of the world where he’s made his mark before.”

Match Facts:

Newcastle have lost their last 10 league games against Arsenal.

The only time they have had a longer losing streak against a particular Premier League opponent was from 2009 to 2015, when they suffered 12 consecutive defeats against Manchester City.

Arsenal have won more Premier League games 1-0 against Newcastle than any other opponent. Nine of their 26 wins against the Magpies in the division have been by a single goal, including the last three.

Newcastle have won 19 points in 2018, a total bettered only by the top four (prior to the latest round of matches).

They could claim four straight Premier League wins for the first time since a sequence of five victories between October and November 2014 under Alan Pardew.

Arsene Wenger’s side are the only Premier League side yet to pick up away point in 2018, losing all four of their top-flight games on the road this calendar year.

The last time Arsenal lost five successive away league games was in 1984 – a run which ended with a 3-1 victory at St James’ Park, with Charlie Nicholas scoring twice for the Gunners that day.

They have not started a calendar year with five consecutive away league defeats since 1925.

Newcastle v Arsenal Match Betting with BetVictor:

Newcastle win 9/4 – Draw 13/5 – Arsenal win 5/4

Perez to score first goal 9/1 – NUFC win 1-0 12/1 – Slimani to score in both halves 33/1


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