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BBC Sport ‘super computer’ prediction for Newcastle v Southampton

3 years ago
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It is Newcastle v Southampton on Saturday afternoon, both sides desperately needing a win to try and give them breathing space above the relegation zone.

BBC Sport have published the likelihood of either club winning, based on the predictions of  ‘super computer’ SAM.

(SAM (Sports Analytics Machine) is a super-computer created by Professor Ian McHale at the University of Liverpool that is used to predict the outcome of football matches.

SAM’s verdict is…

Most probable score: 1-1

Probability of home win: 38%

Probability of away win: 34%

Probability of draw: 28%

Basically, the prediction is two teams that are very hard to split.

Which is hardly a surprise with the two teams only having won 12 of a combined 58 Premier League matches between them this season (seven for Newcastle, five for Southampton).

As for the chances of a goalfest…the last six Premier League matches at St James Park this season have seen only seven goals, with neither Newcastle nor any opposition team scoring  more than once in a game in that time period.

Newcastle’s total of 12 home goals in 14 matches is a shocker and the worst in the division by some way, so is the day when it all changes…?

Against a Southampton team that have won only one of their 16 Premier League matches, surely this is the perfect opposition to arrive on this rainy Tyneside Saturday.

Let’s get at them from the start and let the goals flow!

Match of The Day commentator Alistair Mann’s pre-match notes:

“Any meeting which pits the two sides immediately above the drop zone has genuine resonance but in the final quarter of the season, it can become pivotal.

“With both Newcastle and Southampton realistically requiring at least three wins from their remaining nine games to stay up, there’s no better opposition to secure one of those against, with the psychological damage it inflicts as precious as the points themselves.

“That said, neither can claim to have that winning habit; the hosts though can at least boast one league victory in their last seven matches, while the Saints have secured just one in 16!

“In the circumstances, a nervy, yet truly enticing clash is assured.”

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