No rational fan expects any Newcastle takeover to be agreed in the next couple of months.

Until the relegation question is answered, it looks impossible for Mike Ashley and any potential buyer to agree a figure.

However, the media, especially local papers covering Newcastle United, have been banging on about how once the new Premier League TV deals are announced, that could have a major impact on the takeover happening, or not.

The position we are now at is that five of the seven packages have been confirmed by the Premier League for UK rights, these cover 160 games per season.

It works out so far at £9.3m per game, rather than the current average of £10.2m per match, though with two packages totalling another 40 live games, it is expected the total amount of revenue will work out pretty much the same as the current deal that runs until the end of the 2018/19 Premier League season.

Many analysts are saying that with the remaining two packages not being as attractive, they are set to be agreed at a price per match lower than the £9.3m per game for the five packages Sky Sports and BT Sport have so far secured.

The net result being Premier League clubs getting similar revenues to what they get now but fans inconvenienced by the fact it is 200 PL matches to be show each season of the 380 games, rather than the current 168 live games shown each year.

As for the overseas rights, with a number of deals still to be agreed (they are agreed on a country by country/region by region basis) it looks all but certain that they will at least match the current revenues, or more likely show some sort of increase – how high remains to be seen.

So how does this all impact on any Newcastle takeover?

Well the answer is surely very little, or rather, not at all.

Reality is that any increase or decrease in these TV revenues will simply mean both buyer and seller adjusting their valuations accordingly.

Nobody is seeing any advantage/disadvantage from the new figures whatsoever.

They will still need to agree on a valuation if Mike Ashley is indeed to sell Newcastle United but the TV deals will play no part in making this less or more likely to happen.

A bit like buying/selling a house. If the survey shows a roof needs work on it, then both buyer and seller would expect a lower amount to be paid if the buyer was then to do the work after the purchase, alternatively it would be the higher valuation if the seller did the work before the deal was done.

The same if say an extension is added or a conservatory, various things are always going to affect the intrinsic value of what is being bought and sold.

Only the question of Premier League or Championship football next season needs to be answered.

If Rafa secures top tier safety and then no Newcastle takeover happens this summer, by the Amanda Staveley bidders or whoever, then I think we would all have to accept that Mike Ashley has no genuine interest in selling the football club.

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  • Headless

    And even if we stay up, if Ashley doesn’t sell I’m convinced Rafa will walk (and who would blame him?) knocking £30M? £40M? off the value of the club.

  • MichaelMaximusMoose

    He`s bound to pull a few more strokes in the summer.
    as for Rafa, if we`re still in the Premiership will he walk away from a 100 grand a week.
    Fatso has everyone behind the 8 ball.

    • East Durham Mag

      By the face Fatty is pulling there he’s either having a stroke or got the turtles head 😆

      • MichaelMaximusMoose

        We should be so lucky

      • Peaky Magpie

        Turtles heed both ends mate,the fat tw*t is full of sh*t….

      • FatParosite

        He’s got 50k fans shoved up & loving it.

    • Kneebotherm8

      Problem is he’ll walk into another 100 grand a week job…..Ashley’s paying the going rate for a manager with the CV Benitez has got.

  • TheFatController

    The problem is, with the internet meaning news is 24/7 from an increasing number of media outlets, anything is a good story and all critical thinking is suspended as anything that seems ‘exciting and new’ is deemed true, without analysing where it came from.

    So, the PL rights are up for bid. And google, amazon, Netflix all want a slice of the pie. So watch out Sky and BT. Better bid high.

    And the reality? It’s still sky and BT. What happened to Netflix and amazon?

    Anyone would think the PL had exaggerated, or media outlets, short of news, took molehills and made mountains all in the name of a good news story.

    And no one thought to look at all this hype with a critical, knowledgable eye? How would Netflix or amazon prime get any chunk spent of the £4bn back on tv rights over 3 years? They don’t and can’t sell expensive pub packages for starters. It’d take many millions just for them to educate everyone on how to access it onto big screens etc

  • jack

    Of course it makes a difference , he will just put his price up

  • mactoon

    Even if the figures are around the same it still means there will be more games televised (so more money to each club televised) and the deal is guaranteed for the next three seasons. This makes the club much more appealing financially so he will put his price up accordingly. This will make it more difficult for Staveley to want to meet his price.

    That certainly makes a difference.

  • Alex

    It makes a huge difference – one of the imponderables is now known, so removes that element of uncertainty. Two remain, namely HMRC and relegation.

    The deal could happen at any time – the buyers dangle another carrot, and Fatty could get twitchy.

  • MadMag83

    He’ll just put the price up! The only potential good news is if it removes any uncertainty about revenue that might have been in Ashley’s mind when he rejected PCP previously. Once both parties know the exact figures they can hopefully agree on a price. The stumbling block is still the threat of relegation.

  • HarryHype59

    As platforms expand, I can see fans subscribing for TV season tickets for the club they support.

    Thete are too many meaningless matches.

    • Dont stop bobbi fleckman

      Harry, I agree with you about platforms expanding but it will not be TV that we watch.

      • HarryHype59

        It will be digitally streamed and watched on numerous devices including smart TVs.

        • Dont stop bobbi fleckman

          What I meant was traditional TV companies will not be the way forward

          • HarryHype59

            For once we are in agreement!

  • Cockneytrev

    IMO, he has never had any intention of selling , owning the club is making him to much money,,,

    • Dont stop bobbi fleckman

      explain that one Trevor, I suspect he would like to know too.

  • Andy Mac

    Interesting that Sky appear to have paid less for the next three year package than the what they already have ? For those PL executives and PL Chairmen who thought the Goose was going to continually lay the golden egg, this will have been kick up the proverbial !

    One day football will return to normal and Sky TV will disintegrate to ashes along with those of the owner.

    • Jonas

      39th, 40th and 41st games here we come.

  • FatParosite

    We should have all come to the conclusion that Mike Ashley has no genuine interest in selling the football club 5 years ago.

  • Andy Mac

    I want Sky PL to implode, Scudamore sent to prison (where bending over in the showers isnt a good idea) and we learn how to compete with other leagues without mega money

    • Jonas

      They say the selling point is that our league is competitive compared to others – not any more. Even then Scottish league is more competitive (teams have way more of a chance at Celtic than Man City) that will have an effect. I just get the feeling its going to be rammed down everyone’s throats anyway.

  • Dont stop bobbi fleckman

    The future money does not come from Sky or BT, once the platforms work seemlessly, Netflix, you Tube etc will blow TV out of the water. We have not got close to exploiting Football, the NFL sell more than the premier league and that is a rubbish sport.

    I agree that this deal will neither put off a sale nor make it, the bidders will wait until we survive or drop

    • thewildchimp

      Well, the hand-egg is made intentionally with so many stops, for the TV companies to be able to squeeze in as much commercials as possible. That’s why they are willing to pay more. Also, there is no relegation in NFL, so the top teams have insanely large fan bases. The sport itself is not rubbish, I’ve trained for a while when I was younger and it’s a much more pleasant experience in the lower leagues. I still prefer rugby, though.

      • Dont stop bobbi fleckman

        A little flippant perhaps (re. Gridiron being rubbish) but football has a bigger worldwide audience than gridiron. It’s that factor that I believe will take the EPL to a different level via the likes of netflix, Amazon etc.

        Once the adverts are interactive beyond the level of ”meet single girls in your area’, the thing is easily monetised. Moreover, we have a 15 mins half time so faces can be viewed in delay in order to in ads.

  • Down Under Mag

    Assuming we stay up, and yes it’s still a big IF even after the magnificent result against Man Utd at the weekend, then Ashley will be content. He has essentially ran the club on a shoestring, avoided any massive inflation of his wage structure and still scraped through to cash in on the TV money. Do any of us think this TV money will result in our entering into a new age of splashing the cash under the current owner? Of course not, not when he has proven he can scrape by without this extra burden to his finances…not when he can stick all that money into his back pocket and count it as pure profit.

    Even assuming some global conglomerate comes in and tries to buy the club off him, they will immediately have to fork out the asked for price or Ashley will no doubt turn his nose up at it again. He won’t need to sell. He won’t think he needs to change the clubs running process and as such why would he think keeping the club would be financially bad for him? He continues to get his free advertising and if the clubs profile gets too low then he will come out with some new and exciting way to drag the club into the headlines for all the wrong reasons while basking in the glory of the free publicity for his high street stores.

    As well as a major doubt on Ashley even wanting to sell, which I don’t believe he ever has, any new owners would need to foot the bill of an out of control transfer market without the TV money to help since that will be squirrelled away by Ashley never to see the light of day again, it will not come off the “debt” the club owe him, nor will it be coming off the proposed price of the club. He will in fact be hamstringing the club and the new owners from any sort of rebuild and forward momentum unless they can foot the bill themselves…

    No matter how you look at it, Ashley has the club right where he wants it and the fans, and prospective bidders alike can do nothing about it. Such is life at this club as one man continues his destruction of the very soul. Hopefully there is light, otherwise it is up to the fans to stay strong and not let him ruin what passion is there for the club itself. As Keegan stated, the club is the fans, it is more than just one man. But let’s hope we get to move on sooner rather than later from this turmoiL!

  • Come&TakeIt1836

    I think MA was genuinely interested in selling before. There was massive risk in his asset devaluing via relegation again and the prices in the transfer market had skyrocketed so he had less chance of solidifying his asset. But with no serious bidders he held on to the club. Whether we stay up or not, he will be willing to sell but less willing to negotiate down on price. The value of the club will be more clear and his risk less (either we are down already or not).

    As the article states, the tv deal doesn’t change things much.

  • Jonas

    Ashley wanting to sell, until he does, is THE red herring. There is no evidence of this and in fact only to the contrary.
    if he wanted to sell, he’d be a distant bad memory by now.