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Impact of new Premier League TV deals on Newcastle takeover is total red herring

4 years ago

No rational fan expects any Newcastle takeover to be agreed in the next couple of months.

Until the relegation question is answered, it looks impossible for Mike Ashley and any potential buyer to agree a figure.

However, the media, especially local papers covering Newcastle United, have been banging on about how once the new Premier League TV deals are announced, that could have a major impact on the takeover happening, or not.

The position we are now at is that five of the seven packages have been confirmed by the Premier League for UK rights, these cover 160 games per season.

It works out so far at £9.3m per game, rather than the current average of £10.2m per match, though with two packages totalling another 40 live games, it is expected the total amount of revenue will work out pretty much the same as the current deal that runs until the end of the 2018/19 Premier League season.

Many analysts are saying that with the remaining two packages not being as attractive, they are set to be agreed at a price per match lower than the £9.3m per game for the five packages Sky Sports and BT Sport have so far secured.

The net result being Premier League clubs getting similar revenues to what they get now but fans inconvenienced by the fact it is 200 PL matches to be show each season of the 380 games, rather than the current 168 live games shown each year.

As for the overseas rights, with a number of deals still to be agreed (they are agreed on a country by country/region by region basis) it looks all but certain that they will at least match the current revenues, or more likely show some sort of increase – how high remains to be seen.

So how does this all impact on any Newcastle takeover?

Well the answer is surely very little, or rather, not at all.

Reality is that any increase or decrease in these TV revenues will simply mean both buyer and seller adjusting their valuations accordingly.

Nobody is seeing any advantage/disadvantage from the new figures whatsoever.

They will still need to agree on a valuation if Mike Ashley is indeed to sell Newcastle United but the TV deals will play no part in making this less or more likely to happen.

A bit like buying/selling a house. If the survey shows a roof needs work on it, then both buyer and seller would expect a lower amount to be paid if the buyer was then to do the work after the purchase, alternatively it would be the higher valuation if the seller did the work before the deal was done.

The same if say an extension is added or a conservatory, various things are always going to affect the intrinsic value of what is being bought and sold.

Only the question of Premier League or Championship football next season needs to be answered.

If Rafa secures top tier safety and then no Newcastle takeover happens this summer, by the Amanda Staveley bidders or whoever, then I think we would all have to accept that Mike Ashley has no genuine interest in selling the football club.


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