The Premier League finishing line is now coming into clear sight.

Less than a third of the season remains, with 27 games played and only 11 each to go.

No doubt there will be plenty more twists and turns in these final three months of matches but what could be the best way to try and predict how the final Premier League table will look?

Currently, West Brom are bottom with 20 points, but only six points then separate Bournemouth in 10th and Stoke in 19th.

The current Premier League table:

premier league

Well, below I have looked at the last 11 results for each of the clubs that still look definitely in the relegation battle.

Then I have added the same number of points (from the last possible 33) onto each club’s total, to get a final points total for all 11 Premier League clubs at the bottom.

This is on the basis that most recent form is the best guide to what will happen next.

This is how the final table would look at the bottom on that basis, the final predicted points total before each club, then their record and points total that has been gained in the last 11 matches:

47 West Ham (4 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses – 17 points)

46 Bournemouth (4 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses – 15 points)

43 Crystal Palace (4 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses – 16 points)

42 Swansea (4 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses – 15 points)

41 Newcastle United (3 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses 13 points)

39 Brighton (2 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses – 11 points)

38 Watford (2 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses – 8 points)

36 Huddersfield (2 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses – 9 points)

34 Southampton (1 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses – 8 points)

34 Stoke (2 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses – 9 points)

27 West Brom (1 win, 4 draws, 6 losses – 7 points)

As you can see, using this prediction basis would see Newcastle survive comfortably in 14th place with 41 points. Not the greatest of recent form in terms of wins – only against Stoke, West Ham and Man Utd, but on the other hand Rafa has made NUFC hard to beat, the only defeats in the last 11 being against Arsenal and Man City (twice).

Very bad news though for Alan Pardew and West Brom, they only have one win in the last 11 and indeed the overall record since Pardew arrived at The Hawthorns in late November is even worse, with 1 win, 5 draws and 7 defeats.

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  • Peaky Magpie

    Form tables are fine but they don’t take injuries into account…..just look at us when Lascelles was out….

    • Jezza

      Yes the other important factor is that most of our relegation rivals significantly strengthened their squads in the recent window so their form over the next 11 games could well be better than it was over the last 11.

      • Ben Jones

        Ever the optimist….

        • Big geordie

          Doe,st pay to be an optimist with an
          owner like Ashley, it, will bite you every time.

      • Benmagpie

        Same goes for us really. Two that came in look good and still one to come. I don’t think we have to worry too much about the ‘Sturridge ‘ effect at West Brom…

        • Jezza

          Maybe but Sturridge has done more than Silmani so far simply by taking to the field of play. I just hope Slimani will be able to start actually playing for us ASAP and allay my fears that Fatso Ashley has brought in yet more damaged goods on the cheap.

      • Dont stop bobbi fleckman

        Wow, Jezza returns with a bit if gloom.

        We had a better window than most if our rivals adding 3 good players.

      • David S

        Sunshine on a cloudy day … welcome Jezza! Never the man to let a few facts get in the way of a chance to be hopelessly, bleakly negative.

        • Jezza

          You are completely wrong. I deal entirely in facts. Such as the facts that Brighton, Huddersfield and Southampton all broke their club transfer records in the January window. As well as the fact that Newcastle’s biggest signing in January was an injured Leicester reserve on loan at the last minute. Not negativity but facts.

  • pedrodelgardo

    What did I just learn?

    • Dillon Tovak

      To disregard silly articles.

  • mentalman

    its all very well saying rafa has made us hard to beat but he’s also made it hard for us to win and drawing the majority of games will make relegation more likely

    • glassjawsh-got-banned

      not more likely than losing them

  • Leazes.

    No, no, no ,no no…………. you can’t use the past eleven games to predict the final eleven, you are proposing a constant for all clubs and that is silly.

    There are far too many variables that should be taken into consideration but aren’t. If that were the case then you could place a trixie and the bookies will go bust….. I confidently predict they won’t.

    • Dillon Tovak

      I know, it’s not even slightly logical. We’re playing different teams for one.

  • steveS100

    Actually I also did a prediction for the bottom six with 12 games to go. I assumed that each team would beat any other bottom six side at home, always lose against a top six side and draw at home (but lose away) against any other club. Of course it won’t work out like that. Some clubs will over-perform, there’ll be freak results etc (Newcastle beat Man U, for example, when the prediction was to lose). However it gives a reflection of the difficulty of each teams run in and their current points position. The prediction was also that WBA, Stoke and Southampton would get relegated and Newcastle finish 16th.

  • Nut

    Actually I looked at this recently, I came up with a bottom 3 of West Bromwich, Stoke and Huddersfield. Allbeit I mainly based my prediction on the basis of goals scored/goals conceded. Those 3 having more or less the worst records of all the teams.

    Still what it can’t and no prediction can account for is the “luck” factors involved with it all.

    • Come&TakeIt1836

      I did a game by game guess considering home and away, who cares more (once some opponents have less to play for), etc. I came up with the same bottom three. Newcastle gets essentially safe after beating W Brom in week 36 and is mathematically safe after week 37 as teams below drop points.

  • Peaky Magpie

    I can’t help feeling we will beat relegation but something is also telling me the HMRC investigation is going to really hit us hard….

    • paul mclaughlan

      Although I’m probably wrong I really don’t think it’s gonna affect us that much. 🤞

      • Peaky Magpie

        Yes 🤞🤞🤞And to put a different slant on the phrase “Punish the regime & not the team “

    • Leazes.

      Dunno who is culpable…. the individual who commited the crime or the company.

      • Peaky Magpie

        Just beat me to it Leazes I’ve just added something else..

      • MichaelMaximusMoose

        Penfold the Patsy, lined up to take the fall by Fatso

      • Ben Jones

        That’s right son . You don’t know . You’re learning

      • Peaky Magpie

        Leazes I think Ben Jones is another reincarnation of Clarko,Ghost,Fleckman,Monksatan etc etc… not plumbed in reet…

      • Down Under Mag

        I’m sure it will depend on which club goes down instead of us – wouldn’t surprise me if a hyped up London club goes down then we see a points deduction, would be just our luck!

    • MichaelMaximusMoose

      they always compromise with the rich, they pay, it goes away

      • Peaky Magpie

        Great quote Moose,going to log that one..

  • Virsino

    lol @ “survive comfortably in 14th place with 41 points”

  • Desree

    No that is sorted I can stop watching until August.

  • StevieB

    I think we’ll be lucky in the fact that West Brom have got Pardew, I still believe Swansea will run out of “new manager steam” , and stoke or Huddersfield

  • Rich Lawson

    I’m sick of statistics,just results now please.