BBC Sport have published information showing how likely it is for each of the Premier League strugglers to be relegated.

Working with data analysts Gracenote Sports, they have also analysed what history tells us regarding how many points are likely to be needed for survival.

The 40 point survival target is a bit of a myth according to the past seasons of Premier League football.

The last 22 seasons have seen a 20 club Premier League (prior to 1995/96 there were 22 clubs) and only four times in that 22 year period has a team needed 40 points or more to stay up.

The data says that on average, the number of points to guarantee survival in the last 22 seasons has been 36.6 points.

With now 11 games to go, BBC Sport and Gracenote Sports has 11 teams still in the relegation battle and has calculated the chances of each team being relegated.

That goes from Bournemouth in 10th, down to rock bottom side West Brom.

Gracenote Sports used its Euro Club Index ranking of top-flight clubs and then runs season simulations one million times to estimate the chance of each team being relegated.

This is the percentage chance they found for each Premier League team (current league position and number of points in brackets):

80% West Brom (20th – 20 points)

60% Stoke (19th – 25 points)

48% Huddersfield (17th – 27 points)

23% Southampton (18th – 26 points)

20% Brighton (14th – 28 points)

20% Crystal Palace (15th – 27 points)

17% Swansea (16th – 27 points)

17% Newcastle United (13th – 28 points)

6% West Ham (12th – 30 points)

6% Watford (11th – 30 points)

2% Bournemouth (10th – 31 points)

As you can see above, Newcastle are rated with a 17% chance of relegation, with six clubs given a greater probability of going down.

To feature like Sam Hepworth submit your article to [email protected] and/or for more info go here

  • Paul Patterson

    Means naff all.

    • Fisherking

      Yep your right just waiting for the FA to direct referees to get us down at all costs

  • MichaelMaximusMoose

    It`ll be valid only if Clarko confirms it.

    • Desree

      Clarko built the algorithm

    • Geordiegiants

      He has probably forgot he is logged in as someone else.

      • Peaky Magpie


  • Danimal

    Wow, that’s genius, the formula has identified that the teams below us are currently closer to the relegation places than us. I’d never have thought of that. Can we have this again after the next round of fixtures?

  • Down Under Mag

    Who knows…results are so unpredictable and all this is aying is that those currently in teh bottom three have a bigger chance of going down than those currently safe…who’d have though the?

    Saying that I can’t see us needing anywhere near 40 points to stay up this season, if three teams below us manage to get to 39 points before the end of the season given how they’ve all struggled all season then we probably deserve to go down.

  • huntforbeer

    No doubt they would have predicted an away win for Manchester United last Sunday

  • Big geordie

    Would take that now to relieve the stress ,tickers not asgoodas it was.

  • Leazes.

    Sorry Sam, its not quite science, or maths, or probability…. its cut-n-paste tosh.

    We are 2 points from the danger zone and anything can happen, and probably will.

    If you don’t understand the implementation of data to a statistical treatment then bow out of knowledge zone.