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BBC Sport predict chances of each Premier League club going down using analyst simulations

1 year ago
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BBC Sport have published information showing how likely it is for each of the Premier League strugglers to be relegated.

Working with data analysts Gracenote Sports, they have also analysed what history tells us regarding how many points are likely to be needed for survival.

The 40 point survival target is a bit of a myth according to the past seasons of Premier League football.

The last 22 seasons have seen a 20 club Premier League (prior to 1995/96 there were 22 clubs) and only four times in that 22 year period has a team needed 40 points or more to stay up.

The data says that on average, the number of points to guarantee survival in the last 22 seasons has been 36.6 points.

With now 11 games to go, BBC Sport and Gracenote Sports has 11 teams still in the relegation battle and has calculated the chances of each team being relegated.

That goes from Bournemouth in 10th, down to rock bottom side West Brom.

Gracenote Sports used its Euro Club Index ranking of top-flight clubs and then runs season simulations one million times to estimate the chance of each team being relegated.

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This is the percentage chance they found for each Premier League team (current league position and number of points in brackets):

80% West Brom (20th – 20 points)

60% Stoke (19th – 25 points)

48% Huddersfield (17th – 27 points)

23% Southampton (18th – 26 points)

20% Brighton (14th – 28 points)

20% Crystal Palace (15th – 27 points)

17% Swansea (16th – 27 points)

17% Newcastle United (13th – 28 points)

6% West Ham (12th – 30 points)

6% Watford (11th – 30 points)

2% Bournemouth (10th – 31 points)

As you can see above, Newcastle are rated with a 17% chance of relegation, with six clubs given a greater probability of going down.
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