I was playing football last night and in the pub afterwards, the talk yet again turned to Amanda Staveley and the proposed buyout of Newcastle United.

There were around a dozen of us there, all Newcastle fans, apart from a solitary Swindon supporter who ended up in civilisation after meeting a Geordie lass on holiday many years ago.

All 12 of us, including the Swindon fan, were agreed on one thing, that Newcastle United will only have the chance of potentially not being a disaster club, once Mike Ashley has left.

However, when it comes to the Newcastle takeover and why it hasn’t happened, there are all kinds of viewpoints.

The same when it comes to what would happen after any ownership change.

I was pretty surprised when somebody said’ Why doesn’t Amanda Staveley just pay the extra £50m and get the Newcastle takeover done?’, especially when the majority agreed with him.

With football these days, it is easy just to think of it as Monopoly money, not really bearing any relation to how we normally see cash in other walks of life.

Neymar cost PSG over £200m and his five year deal will see even more than that figure paid in wages, so when one player will cost a club between £400m and £500m, maybe no surprise that many supporters see it as small change when the Newcastle buyout is said to be failing because of a difference of ‘only’ £50m.

Speaking of PSG, the reality is that they and Manchester City are the two clubs where any concept of reality went out of the window. Two club purchases where the amounts of money spent overall, means that at least on the surface there appears to be never any chance of the owners getting all of their money back, never mind make a profit.

That is not the norm though, Abramovich and Chelsea maybe the only one in England to be close to what happened/is happening at Man City.

There is really only one overriding reason why all of the others are getting involved in the Premier League, which is to make money. Not necessarily on a year to year basis but by running the club well, getting success on and off the pitch, then selling for a lot more at a future date.

Look at Liverpool, FSG bought them for around £300m and whilst they have invested money since, they allegedly turned down a £1billion offer from an Amanda Staveley led bid. Exactly how much substance there was in that is hard to say but certainly, if FSG did sell Liverpool, they would walk away with a massive profit.

So what is Newcastle United worth and with the £300m FSG paid for Liverpool in 2010 looking a bargain, is £300m for NUFC not a similar snip seven years later on, what with ever rapidly escalating TV deals, the next ones due to be revealed in February (2018).

Well whatever else, it definitely appears that if Newcastle are to be bought, it won’t be a PSG/Man City model of money no object.

Instead it will be a buyer(s) looking to invest to make a future profit.

So even if you leave aside how relegation fears would/will affect any valuation of Newcastle United, what is the value of the club without that factor?

If the Amanda Staveley bid valuation is £250m and they see that as what the club is really worth, paying ‘just another £50m’ would be paying 20% more than they want to.

It is a bit like you going to buy a car for ten grand and then being expected to pay another two grand more than you thought it would be.

In Staveley/NUFC’s case, it is just another business deal, which I am fine with, that is just the way it is. Jack Walker at Blackburn is a total one-off, we don’t have a Newcastle fan that is going to buy the club.

What you hope for is a business person(s) come in and build Newcastle United up and we see success, both on the field and in terms of revenues coming in. A win/win situation, fans see a better team and the owner eventually profits from doing a good job and selling the club at a far higher price.

If/when Amanda Staveley and her other investors take over at St James Park, they will have a plan. That plan will almost certainly include a length of time they have in mind, to get the club in the best state it can possibly be, then sell it.

If you pay £50m extra now, then that is £50m less profit you are ensuring in the future. It is £50m more risk as well, that you could potentially lose if it all goes wrong. You could also see it as money intended to be invested after the buyout, maybe instead having to be used for the initial purchase.

Bottom line is that any buyer of Newcastle United is unlikely to pay more for the club than they think it is worth, especially when they have seen this run of one point from 10 games and the club now in the relegation zone.

Amanda Staveley may have been born and bred only 70 or so miles down the road but her and whoever else is involved in trying to buy the club, are not Newcastle fans.

It is just another business deal for them. It certainly appears to be a business deal that they want to get done but nevertheless, a business deal that they will have no scruples about walking away from if the price isn’t right.

We know Newcastle could be a brilliant investment for any buyer if they get it right but if Mike Ashley is sticking to some unrealistic valuation, then I see absolutely zero chance of a deal happening.

Sadly, Ashley is rich enough to totally ruin Newcastle United and make it all but worthless, yet still it not to make any impact on the way he lives his life. He could still afford to go vomiting in pub fireplaces and flying around in his helicopter and private jet.

I honestly think that our best bet is if he needs the cash from the sale of Newcastle United to use on a business venture elsewhere, meaning he may feel he has to eventually take a realistic offer.

If not, we know he is stubborn and rich enough to think he will just hang on to the club and see what happens, especially with the new Premier League TV deals set to be announced in two months time.

If we get relegated yet again under his ownership he is arrogant and stupid enough to think that bouncing back for a third time will be a given, even though we all know it would be anything but.

Please, please, please let this nightmare of Mike Ashley at Newcastle United to be over soon.

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  • MichaelMaximusMoose

    Looks like he isn`t going to budge, which doesn`t come as a surprise,
    he was never going to take £250m. he`s waiting for her to increase it & if she doesn`t he`ll pull the plug on the takeover & wait for another day.

  • MichaelMaximusMoose

    PSG & Man C are owned by the super rich & make Fatso look like a pauper.
    they aren`t in it for the money, it`s just their hobby, the guy who owns Man C has £40 billion & his wife`s old man is the ruler of Dubai who`s got racehorses worth more than the Toon
    We should be so Lucky

    • thewildchimp

      Exactly. That’s the kind of blokes that would cash out a several tens of thousands of their petro-dollars to watch a private game of football in a random town they are passing by. Cashley, with his puny ambitions, is not even on their radars.

  • Whitehurst

    Reckon it’s been signed and sealed fella…just being kept under wraps until FA ratify due diligence part.

    • babeandbp

      I SO hope you’re right.

      • Whitehurst

        Me too. Just a hunch tho!!

    • Dutch

      Your dreaming again, wake up and face reality.

      • Whitehurst

        Again??? What and you know the full story then do you mate? I guess you’re one of the Rafa out brigade too? Idiot!!

        • Damon Horner

          I agree. The curry house meeting looked very casual.

          • Whitehurst

            At last someone who’s looking forward. Have to stay upbeat!! Anything is better than the Fat One. Keep the faith people. HWTL!!

    • HarryHype59

      I doubt that very much, unless Ashley has agreed to the PCP clause on relegation!

      • Whitehurst

        Although, I do think this ongoing relegation clause has been a matter of concern….I also feel (and hopefully) this issue has already been addressed. Do you blame Staveley for bringing this up? At the same time….I feel that both her and Ashley are also conscious that time is not on their side. Ashley in terms of a diminishing asset….and Staveley in regards of maximising on her investment. Whatever we think of the fat one….he may be perceived as a feckwit….but surely he must realise that this is a prime time to sell up and ship out….as regards sound business strategy?! I could be wrong….but I sincerely hope that I’m right as well. Hope springs eternal!!

    • Geordiegiants

      I think you could be right. I just hope it’s not another false dawn, like when Jabba bounced into town.

      • Whitehurst

        Was just thinking that too. Remember when the Fat One rocked up in the toon 10 years ago….we thought he was going to our saviour from the Shepherd regime. How wrong we were? While being optimistic….I’m also adding a huge dose of scepticism to the mix too!!

        • Geordiegiants

          Jabba has made us all think like that unfortunately.

  • Saul Williams

    If this takeover falls through,every non Newcastle fan will be jumping for joy.Lately all i have heard is people saying how much they dislike us.whether it’s pundits or opposition fans.Why do people dislike us?

    • Whitehurst

      Because they all buy into lazy journalism spouting the same old twaddle about how deluded our fans are. In this day and age of more media outlets….every fecker believes what they read too. Simple!!

    • Andynufc

      Because they think we’re deluded and that we all sit and talk about how nufc should be winning the league every year. It’s all bs but honestly, who cares what other fans think. We know the truth. Do we expect trophies? No! How can we after 60 years of winning nothing. Do we want to win trophies? Of course! What fans don’t. We want our club to be up there, like the rest. Personally I think there’s this snobby attitude towards nufc fans from the media. A kind of, know your place. Basically we don’t have a right to be ambitious! Well screw the lot of them, I say.

      • Mitros gotta start

        They are just jealous….we clearly have the best fans in the country….i think we were the 3rd best supported club in england last year despite being in the championship…..they think we need knocking down a peg or 2

      • Whitehurst

        Simon Jordan being the main recent culprit…the guy really hates us and seems to buy into that all us Geordies hate Southerners. Muppet!!

    • Geordiegiants

      Why do people dislike us??? Are you kidding? We have all of these lot on here ripping Rafa to bits for a start. Apart from about half a dozen clubs in the top six and even some of them would jump at the chance to have Rafa, our muppets complain about him, complain about our players, complain about Jabba, all our fans do is complain and moan. Yes we are in a bad situation with the fat cancer that owns us, but the fans, manager and players should all be sticking together. This lot complain about EVERYTHING. No wonder people think we are deluded and hate us.

    • Jezza

      Jealousy.

  • Mitros gotta start

    I still think ashley has no serious intention of selling….he is making far too much money out of it…..its not like he is spending anything on the team….and add to that all the free advertising he gets and all the extra tv money about to come into the game why would he sell?….its all just another smokescreen to get us through another transfer window without dippìng his hand in his pocket.

    • Jezza

      I agree 100% and have thought that way ever since the day the club was supposedly put up for sale.

  • HarryHype59

    This deal is dead in the water! A hedge fund like PCP won’t pay £300m for a club that is in the bottom three and is 6 to 4 to be relegated.

    The main revenue source is under serious threat. That makes NUFC a high risk venture.

    • dave

      PCP aren’t a hedge fund

      • HarryHype59

        For the purpose of running us, they will behave exactly as a hedge fund! That’s why Ashley’s fantasy valuation won’t be met!

    • Jezza

      Spot on.

  • Guest 2

    Sick to death of hearing many say Ashley is a great businessman so will hold out. If he was a great businessman and not a gambling chancer, then the prospect of all his money back after 10 years of profiting from the Club should do him – especially when the alternative is another relegation, a massively devalued club/business and the loss of PL tv income again, which can only be avoided with a decent sized spend in January.

    • Whitehurst

      Ditto mate. See my reply below!!

  • Whitehurst

    Let’s face it….Staveley won’t want to lose any more face and have a 2nd failed football club (e.g. LFC) takeover bid kicked into the dust. It will damage not only her football business reputation….but also that of her main corporate business acumen as well. Like the most of us….I don’t know too much about her dealings, but she appears to be a no nonsense canny business woman, who usually tends to get what she wants. Her on-going non denial to buy us is testament to how badly she wants to purchase NUFC!!

    • HarryHype59

      She also won’t want to look a total mug and get ripped off by Ashley! Unless he concedes to the relegation clause this deal won’t happen!

  • Alreet

    Ive got a funny feeling its gonna hang till the end of the week or new years eve so that its done for the new year.

    Non disclosures this and transfer budgets that. Does anyone actually know whats going on? For all we know it could be agreed but they are just rubber stamping the fine print.

    Ash doesnt want to be part of this place anymore. This is his only exit and the only investor that has given real interest.

    He knows he is hated here and wont want to come back in a hurry. Yea hes a business man but hes also not stupid about his other businesses suffering due to the bad publicity hes getting.

    You reap what you sow and i truely believe the savern slob will be gone by the end of the year.

    • Danimal

      Hope you’re right. Not convinced.

    • Jezza

      I think the saga will drag on till the end of the January window and be used as a convenient excuse for no new signings coming in. Then come early February it will be announced that the takeover is off and the club is no longer up for sale.

  • Mrkgw

    Come on Amanda – oust the poison and make yourself our new messiah. Take us on a roller coaster of a journey akin to the Keegan era of the 90s! You will be universally loved for it.

    • Oooh bobbi fleckman

      The acts on behalf of clients, she’s a broker.

      • Mrkgw

        Thought that she wanted to head any consortium and play a part in the running of things? Maybe not then……

        • Oooh bobbi fleckman

          She may be appointed by her clients to play a part in running things but if she has an investment in the consortium it will be a case of meet the new boss, same as the old boss as she does not have the money to make a difference.

  • Rich Lawson

    If this was Arabs,who she has represented in the past, the money would be nothing to people who just compete with their siblings,also multi billionaire royalty, just for prestige rather than profit ? The Chinese on the other hand aren’t afraid to put money in, but also want a decent business plan that will eventually show a return. No one apart from a select few has any real idea what is going on ?

  • Oooh bobbi fleckman

    The key here is whether Mike Ashley needs to exit. If you had a relegation clause in and you were Mike Ashley, would you rather be in control of that destiny or let someone else control it? Rather like selling a car where the buyer says he’ll pay £2,900 now and £600 in the summer BUT hell only pay £600 if the car does not have a crash in that time AND he wants to do all the driving.

    Now, if Mike Ashley has his eye elsewhere, he may drop the price. In this case, he may have an eye on a blue car where he knows the owners can’t really afford to tax and insure it so can get such a deal that it may be worth getting what he can here.

    • HarryHype59

      Problem is the car has been ran on the cheap,with lot’s of dodgy parts used for servicing and repairs, that aren’t good enough! The car has two CAT Cs on it already due to careless driving of the existing owner!

      An independent mechanic reckons it’s 6:4 to crash again, making it nigh on worthless!

      The owner has been advertising it for months, but only one person has expressed interest! However they reckon the car is over priced!

      • Mitros gotta start

        And its being sold by arthur daley

      • Oooh bobbi fleckman

        Which, even if true is irrelevant.

        The point is that if your buyer is saying they will only pay you the Full ask if the car is in one piece in the summer, you’d be tempted to just look after the this yourself rather than hand it to someone who has never driven before.

    • thewildchimp

      Yes, but nothing stops them from signing a contract now that would take effectiveness in the summer. The chances of changing the ownership in January are slim, whatever route this takes.

      • Oooh bobbi fleckman

        That’s right, what I think/believe is in place is an understanding of how things will go forward and the price to be paid. The potential buyers have already agreed on a budget for transfers, after all, if they bought the club today, it would be a company with a cash asset of (say) £30m in the bank. By the end of January, it will be a company with no money in the bank and player assets that on paper are valued at £30m, If I were buying, I’d like a say in what those player assets are, similarly, if I were the current owner and there was a chance that come January, the buyer would have backed out, the current owner wants a say in those player assets.

  • FatParosite

    Therein lies the rub. We are likely to get an owner who is just as business like & thrifty when it comes to OUR club. Why on earth would a potential owner throw away £50m on a club when they don’t have to? Metaphors aside this is a car crash waiting to happen. Why buy a car that is certain to crash? It’s a buyers market. Ashley is bottoming out with Sh1tDirect. His other gambles have not come off & he is looking to offload a business that takes more care & attention the more he strips it of worth. Why buy now when all the control is in Staveley’s hands?

    • thewildchimp

      She’s probably buying it for one of those wealthy Arab princes who wants to brag in his village how he owns a club in England. Which would be good for us, since they like to shower plebs with money like that. Or she’s buying it for herself, only to invest and resell when the time comes.

  • Tomb

    Maybe she will hold off until survival is secured, if that happens. If there is a good chance of getting relegated she doesn’t need to rush in and why should she

  • Tomb

    Its a shame it has all become about money. The league is usually ranked in order of spending. Academies are largely irrelevant. The days when an exceptional manager could take a club by the scruff of the neck from the doldrums and raise them to new heights (shankly revie clough Graham Taylor as examples) have largely gone tho Burnley Bournemouth and Huddersfield are bucking the trend.

    • ghostrider

      You know what….I beg for that to come back.
      The grass roots kind of thing.
      I hate what the game’s become.
      I mean how in the hell can you end up with a league that has more foreign players in it than English?

      Obviously we know why but the issue is WHY destroy the structure of it all by handing a set stall out to the few teams deemed elite and leave the rest to fester with a pretence of hope.

      We are being toyed with as fans by those who run the entire show, I think.