Chelsea are third in the Premier League and obviously have some very good players but when you look into their stats, it surely gives Newcastle every encouragement they can get something on Saturday.
They dominated against Swansea on Wednesday night and scored only one second half goal despite 21 shots and 15 corners.
Whilst their previous game relied on a very late goal from sub Willian to rescue a point at Anfield.
Looking overall this season, Chelsea scored two in every one of their first four Premier League matches BUT have then scored one or less in seven of the next 10.
Ironically, when they have managed more than one goal, they have smashed four past the other three clubs, though they were against teams (Watford, Stoke and West Brom) who are conceding plenty of goals this season.
Newcastle might have leaked nine goals in their last three matches but even with that, only four teams outside the top seven have conceded less Premier League goals than NUFC.
Looking at their last five games, Chelsea have failed to score a first half goal in four of them, the exception being the 4-0 demolition of West Brom. In the other four, they scored a single goal in each, the goals coming in these minutes – 55, 85, 55 and 51.
It suggests to me that if they aren’t leading before half-time, they throw everything into getting a goal after the break, but then relax and try to see out a one goal win without taking too many risks.
Once again, if Newcastle can get that tightness back, there is no reason why they can’t build that pressure against the hosts. Then with Merino back and Dwight Gayle likely to play the lone role up front, every chance of Merino and Shelvey able to catch Chelsea on the break and set Gayle free with his pace.
I think like a lot of Newcastle fans I was already seeing Saturday as a bit of a write-off but after seeing the Chelsea stats I see some chinks in their armour, the challenge for Newcastle is whether they can be good enough to exploit them.
Chelsea’s last 10 Premier League matches:
Chelsea 1 Swansea 0 – 29 November
Liverpool 1 Chelsea 1 – 25 November
West Brom 0 Chelsea 4 – 18 November
Chelsea 1 Man Utd 1 – 5 November
Bournemouth 0 Chelsea 1 – 28 October
Chelsea 4 Watford 2 – 21 October
Crystal Palace 2 Chelsea 1 – 14 October
Chelsea 0 Man City 1 – 30 September
Stoke 0 Chelsea 4 – 23 September
Chelsea 0 Arsenal 0 -17 September
Chelsea v Newcastle Match Betting:
All Chelsea v Newcastle betting HERE
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