Mike Ashley and whether or not he will sell Newcastle United, has been the background story to Newcastle United season so far.

Yet again we have been told that the owner is willing to sell the club…but after over 10 years, many fans doubt Ashley’s sincerity…

The media have claimed that a number of interested parties have signed non-disclosure documents in preparation of a potential purchase of NUFC but we have heard that all before as well.

Then we also had the Amanda Staveley sideshow at the Liverpool match, believed to be involved in putting together deals to buy one or more Premier League clubs, but with claims it is really Spurs and Liverpool that are targeted.

On top of all this, we don’t even know if (if you assume he does want to sell) Mike Ashley is prepared to take a fair bid for Newcastle United.

Further press reports have claimed he wants in and around the £400m mark but what is the club really worth?

One football finance expert has now claimed that the club is worth only around half that figure.

Football finance expert Dr Daniel Plumley of Sheffield Hallam University speaking to Shields Gazette:

“That (Mike Ashley) asking price (of around £400m) is arguably over the odds.

“Current brand value, based on factors such as league standing, revenue potential, fan base and global exposure, has Newcastle valued at around £190-200million.

“This is almost double that, so I would argue it is a high asking price.

“It’s probably also linked to what Mike Ashley has injected in with regards to his own funds and trying to recoup some of that which is fair enough, but based on market brand values it might be tough to achieve that figure.

“I’m speculating slightly here, but (NUFC hasn’t been sold) probably due to some of the negative press surrounding Ashley and the current structure of the club plus the high asking price.

“Another issue is league stability. When the club dropped into the Championship the brand value would have reduced somewhat.

“It’s now back up because of Premier League status but the club need to stay there to keep the value high and maximise revenue from TV rights and commercial opportunities.

 “Any potential buyer or investor must be prepared to build incrementally and look at longer term strategic decisions in the current market. That said, there are still good potential growth opportunities for clubs particularly in the overseas market.”

  • MichaelMaximusMoose

    £200m is an undervaluation considering the TV revenue & stadium advertising would bring in a fair bit per season once those appalling Shyte Direct logo`s are binned

  • Mark Spark

    I would like an article explaining to me,Why would The Parasite sell?Cause I cant see a single reason.he doesn’t need the cash.he doesn’t care what fans think.He gets his free advertising.he gets his other little cons.He gets to have his little digs at fans(his interview) and laughs up his sleeve at his carefully worded statement(every penny from NOW on),his asset is going up in value so he is winning in the only thing he cares about(business)he gets to undermine a popular strong character who dared stand up to him who didnt know his place.he gets a gambling thrill if a player we got cheap goes for a big price while not caring about the poor players(gamblers only think about the wins,never the loses).

    • Guest 2

      I’d say it’s because he isn’t interested and therefore doesn’t want to have to fund another relegation his ownership is more than capable of bringing.

    • Gallowgate Dave

      I totally agree. I think the only reason he will sell is if he gets a daft offer and takes it because he can’t really be bothered to put any real graft into the club so rather than risk a 3rd relegation he’ll walk away with a handsome profit. In the absence of an offer that over-values the club in its present state he’ll just keep bleeding it whilst trying to run it on a shoestring as long as he finishes at least 17th each year. The only thing that gives me some hope is someone may actually over-pay for us when you see the valuations placed on clubs like Man City and Liverpool. Our potential is no different, smaller city of course but a one club city, very distinct cultural identity, large surrounding conurbation to draw from and footy is already hugely popular and established here.

  • Lord

    Economic theory: “The price is what a person pays for a given product, whilst value is what any given product is worth.”

    £200m for a PL club with an operating profit; sensible wages to revenue ratio; world class manager (for now!); popular with broadcasters; 50,000 seater stadium owned by the club – it’s a bit low.

    Everton and Leicester are both currently valued in and around the £400m mark, so I would say somewhere in between for NUFC, given the potential.

    • Oooh bobbi fleckman

      bang on

  • steve pearce

    More anti-Newcastle bias when we just don’t want it. Rubbish like this destabilises our position during a possible sales campaign. Dr Plumely should get his head out of the clouds of academia and concentrate on running his classes. Leave Newcastle business to Newcastle as they are best qualified to conduct it. As to the question of why the owner should wish to sell – he is investing in more upmarket brands and needs the cash from a sale for this purpose. This is inverted snobbery from an ex-barrow boy but as long as it rids us of him I don’t care….

    • Mark Spark

      he needs cash?Wasnt it mentioned he had over £400 mil cash in MASH accounts plus god knows what else.If Im wrong,hands up

      • Guest 2

        close to 600 at least

    • Guest 2

      Huh? Fatty and Charnley the best qualified people to run the Club? Mate, your arguments are all over the place.

  • mactoon

    Football finance expert?

    The basic value it has to sell for WITHOUT “league standing, revenue potential, fan base and global exposure” will be made up of the price he paid for it £134 million and the money he is owed £129 million which gives a starting price of £261 million. Add to that potential revenue from league placing, advertising and sponsorship, and TV appearances at around £1 million per televised match would seem to make this experts valuation of £190 – £200 million a non starter don’t you think?

    • Oooh bobbi fleckman

      The money he’s put in is almost irrelevant when it comes to how much a buyer is prepared to offer. If you look at pure revenue, the club is set to make a £40m – £60m profit this year, it has no reason to spend on the stadium, decent attendances and recognisable brand, that’s what people are paying for. If you were to put £400 into a bank account or share, you would be very lucky to get £40 income / growth in a year. That makes £400m quite cheap

    • Guest 2

      What, like he has to make a profit? What business ever had that luxury?

      • mactoon

        Yes it’s obvious Ashley has to make a profit or he simply wont sell. He won’t sell at a loss. He has the luxury of not needing to put any more money into the club as long as he can make it self sufficient and stay in the Premiership. He would be happy to continue owning the club and taking the free advertising for Sports Direct on that basis

  • Leazes Ender

    And bankers give themselves huge dividends for their expertise in crippling the world’s economy…. and this is the guy teaching the next generation of crooks and delusional sociopaths called financial experts…. you just have to read anything fleckman says to realise its all clouded bull.

    Ah… I remember when I was a kid and you were encouraged to have a savings account and earn interest (they give you money for your trust in their financial acumen,….. not like now where you pay them for so called ‘services’). They would give kids a novelty shaped ‘piggy banks’ in the shape of a globe a bee or a beaver.

    Ah financial experts who set up offshore accounts so clients can hide money from the tax we all pay….. the guy who works in starbucks making a cappuccino pays more tax than the company he works for……

    Brave new world, that has such people in it! where the divide between rich and poor has never been so great.

    • Oooh bobbi fleckman

      Irrelevent nonsense as ever Sofa ender.

  • HarryHype59

    I would argue that the £200m valuation is more accurate than the £380m wanted by Ashley. Under his regime this club has been relegated twice and now simply classes success as surviving in the top flight each season!

    We don’t attempt to compete with the more successful clubs and have gone from every ones second team, to one that merely makes up the numbers in the top tier!

    The £200m valuation reflects the brand devaluation arising from under achievement on the pitch under Ashley!

    • Oooh bobbi fleckman

      On what basis Harry? what investment so you know of where £400 would give you a profit / growth of £40-£60?

      Ok, I know you will rightly point to a risk of relegation but that should be negated as we go on.

      • HarryHype59

        Any profit is based upon the assumption the club remains in the top flight! Without the EPL TV money this club won’t make any profit!

        To maintain top flight status a significant amount of money simply has to be spent. Another low net spend in future windows could result Rafa walking and thus an increased chance of relegation!

    • Guest 2

      Ashley has a run down bungalow in Darras Hall and he’s trying to sell it based on what it can be rather than what is. That’s the comparison I’d make.

      Mind, I don’t see how a business which is guaranteed a minimum income of 100 million from tv alone (as long as in PL) could be valued at only double that.

  • Stephen

    Just don’t understand what I’m reading.
    Apparently Liverpool worth “1Bill”
    Are Newcastle only worth 20%of that amount?

  • Oooh bobbi fleckman

    There are a few models out there to value a football club but it comes down to how much the owner is prepared to accept.

    Using EPL TV deal figures, the Tom Markham would have us valued at around £450m, Kieran Maguire’s model would have us in the £500m area, Ilia Solntsev’s could be as low as £350m through to £600m.

    If Daniel Plumley is saying the valuation is too high, he’s got to show his workings. I’ve had a look for his work on valuation, it doesn’t appear that he’s published in this area?

  • Oooh bobbi fleckman

    Reading the Shields’ piece, he doesn’t put any meat on the bones but quotes Plumley saying it “would represent a profit of around £70million for Ashley on his original £134 million” so his valuation assumes the debt is paid back separately, so the £400m asking price is reduced to £358m which isn’t far off the mooted £380m figure that Ashley would accept.

  • Monkseaton Magpies

    If any buyer can not afford four hundred million a waste of time as full backs are now fifty million a pop good strikers one hundred and fifty million to compete at the top.
    So the price of the club is not an issue if you want to compete.

  • Sing in the Leazes

    Don’t be fooled.
    This is a negotiation.
    Articles suddenly appearing with previously unknown club valuers sticking precise numbers on our beloved NUFC?
    The last thing we should be doing is taking the article at face value.
    It’s a starting bid from the purchasers.
    Ashley will then claim ‘logic’ and cite the supposed ‘investment’ to justify the equally biased but instead too high £400m.
    But neglect to mention all the free advertising … not to mention the fun of having your own football team … and of course the global networking opportunities afforded him by owning an EPL franchise. And 10 yrs of terrible mismanagement. Idiot. Fat fool. Ego driven baby man.
    Basically it’s haggling by proxy.
    Probably over less than you might think.
    They could well be less than £50m apart already. Ashley will settle for 330 and Stavely is keen on 280?
    Time for a journo pal to shout 200 and hope Ashley weaken?

  • Down Under Mag

    It’s never what something is worth as much as it is to do with what someone is willing to pay. We have been hampered in terms of current worth because of years of struggling on the pitch and years of mismanagement and bad press off it. That being said, a new owner must see the potential for using us as a huge platform for recognition should it be an investment group like Man City and even a sensible owner who doesn’t need to bankroll the club but just run things properly should be able to see that there is a potential return on investment with adequate backing of a world class manager.

  • Antenociticus

    Ashley’s “valuation” of £380m is just like the initial price tags on any of the tat in his stores, it bears little relation to the true value. This is how he does business: he picks a valuation out of a certain orifice and then tries to make the buyer think they’re getting a good deal because they pay a lot less than that initial”price”.

    • HarryHype59

      Perhaps he needs to apply one of his SD “70% off ” discounts?

  • HappyToons

    The biggest game in England is Man U v Liverpool. Two legendary clubs 30 miles apart, both with fantastic history and support. Two different accents and as hostile as any ‘derby’ or football war you can name. GIANTS! Giants in America, Asia and just everywhere. Yes only 30 miles apart.

    Then there is us where the biggest game in Newcastle is v Sunderland. Sunderland the Stoke City of irrelevance. Outside of Newcastle we are seen as comparable to a glued broken Leeds (without the same recent success!) or any other northern midtable nonentity.

    Chelsea v NUFC is like us playing Watford. It is hard to get excited and you can hear a pin drop around the stadium except for the away support.

    What we have is a very large fan base. Though there is quite a few different accents from Darlo to Berwick.

    We are in the premiership. We have Rafa.

    The outpost of English football and English civilisation. It’s cold up north. It’s bleak up north, as we are told. Players would rather sign for Swansea!

    Now it is easy for any outside of our area to work out that NUFC isn’t seen as the same club that we love. Our passion often blinds us to reality. WE were a GIANT in the 1950’s. Almost on track again under Keegan. Potential buyers would have to see the GIANT within us, and there is that potential, to want to throw multi millions at this club.

    Will it happen? Possibly the Chinese, but then they won’t be throwing in millions,… we might become a WBA?

  • magpiefifer

    The selling situation is where Ashley has to pay for his blinkered approach over using NUFC as a tool for boosting his one and only love – Sports Direct.
    If he had been a shrewd businessman he would have increased the value of NUFC – expanding the revenue base with more commercial income etc and not publicising his tat retail empire.
    He may be a billionaire,but he’s not a genius!!!.