With a lack of signings, there have been some ‘interesting’ Newcastle United transfer theories.
These are specifically people who are looking on the positive side when it comes to the club going into the first friendly of the season tomorrow, with only one new face in Florian Lejeune.
One of these theories and some of the north east local press have mentioned this, is that Newcastle United could be waiting for these opening days/weeks/months of made transfer prices to blow themselves out, then when other clubs have done their money in, NUFC could then pick up some more realistically priced signings.
Personally, I think this is fatally flawed and if anything prices could go even higher if you leave it to the last minute, with a smaller pool of players to go for and clubs reluctant to sell with little time and options to bring in replacements.
However, an even more interesting/optimistic Newcastle United transfers theory put forward, is a longer-term one.
This one believes/hopes that with Sky Sports seeing a dip in viewers last season for live Premier League football, the next lot of TV deals could see a fall in cash for top tier clubs.
So (the theory goes) if Newcastle don’t spend much in this window, long-term they could be laughing, as if the new TV cash is lower as from the 2019/20 season, then the other clubs that have spent big could be landed with players on long-term contracts on bigger money that was based on expecting TV cash to keep going up.
Good luck to these happy clappers!
The current raft of TV deals for covering live Premier League football goes from 2016-2019, starting last (2016/17) season and then the following two.
The Premier League receive just over £1.7bn per year for the domestic TV rights, with Sky Sports and BT Sport having those contracts, whilst there are over 60 deals worldwide which together pay just under £1.1bn a year for overseas rights.
Personally, I have no doubt that the domestic rights will see yet another rise when the 2019-2022 deals are sorted. Even if it didn’t significantly go up, I don’t think there is any chance of the amount of money going down.
The interesting one though is the overseas cash and where that is going to head in 2019-2022.
Even though it is still two years to go until the 2019/20 season and the new TV deals (both domestic and overseas) coming into effect, already four parts of the world have agreed their overseas right for 2019-2022.
Sports finance specialists Sporting Intelligence say that Brazil, USA, China and Sub-Saharan Africa have signed off their deals with the Premier League and that quartet alone will now be paying a massive £530m between them per year, as from the start of the 2019/20 season.
Bear in mind that at the moment all of the overseas contracts together pay £1.07bn per year.
Yet with only those four signed up, the Premier League are already up to roughly half that amount £530m per year, and they still have 60 (SIXTY) more overseas contracts to sort out ahead of the new deals kicking in, in 2019/20.
So the bottom line is, even if the domestic deals level out (which they won’t), the overseas money is set to increase dramatically. So any dreams of prudent (penny pinching) saving/spending by Premier League clubs paying benefits in the future, is living in dream land.
This is how the overseas money has increased from the very start of the Premier League in 1992/93.
The amounts are per year how much all of the overseas TV deals were/are worth:
£7.6m – 1992-1997
£24.5m – 1997-2001
£59.3m – 2001-2004
£108.3m – 2004-2007
£216.7m – 2007-2010
£479.0m – 2010-2013
£744.0m – 2013-2016
£1.07bn – 2016-2019
Last (2016/17) season the Premier League clubs received more than twice as much as only four years earlier (2012/13).
It is pretty clear just where it is all heading and if you thought transfer fees were all a bit mad in summer 2017, just wait for two years time!
(All contributions from Newcastle fans welcome, send articles (as well as ideas/suggestions) to [email protected])