With a lack of signings, there have been some ‘interesting’ Newcastle United transfer theories.

These are specifically people who are looking on the positive side when it comes to the club going into the first friendly of the season tomorrow, with only one new face in Florian Lejeune.

One of these theories and some of the north east local press have mentioned this, is that Newcastle United could be waiting for these opening days/weeks/months of made transfer prices to blow themselves out, then when other clubs have done their money in, NUFC could then pick up some more realistically priced signings.

Personally, I think this is fatally flawed and if anything prices could go even higher if you leave it to the last minute, with a smaller pool of players to go for and clubs reluctant to sell with little time and options to bring in replacements.

However, an even more interesting/optimistic Newcastle United transfers theory put forward, is a longer-term one.

This one believes/hopes that with Sky Sports seeing a dip in viewers last season for live Premier League football, the next lot of TV deals could see a fall in cash for top tier clubs.

So (the theory goes) if Newcastle don’t spend much in this window, long-term they could be laughing, as if the new TV cash is lower as from the 2019/20 season, then the other clubs that have spent big could be landed with players on long-term contracts on bigger money that was based on expecting TV cash to keep going up.

Good luck to these happy clappers!

Reality check.

The current raft of TV deals for covering live Premier League football goes from 2016-2019, starting last (2016/17) season and then the following two.

The Premier League receive just over £1.7bn per year for the domestic TV rights, with Sky Sports and BT Sport having those contracts, whilst there are over 60 deals worldwide which together pay just under £1.1bn a year for overseas rights.

Personally, I have no doubt that the domestic rights will see yet another rise when the 2019-2022 deals are sorted. Even if it didn’t significantly go up, I don’t think there is any chance of the amount of money going down.

The interesting one though is the overseas cash and where that is going to head in 2019-2022.

Even though it is still two years to go until the 2019/20 season and the new TV deals (both domestic and overseas) coming into effect, already four parts of the world have agreed their overseas right for 2019-2022.

Sports finance specialists Sporting Intelligence say that Brazil, USA, China and Sub-Saharan Africa have signed off their deals with the Premier League and that quartet alone will now be paying a massive £530m between them per year, as from the start of the 2019/20 season.

Bear in mind that at the moment all of the overseas contracts together pay £1.07bn per year.

Yet with only those four signed up, the Premier League are already up to roughly half that amount £530m per year, and they still have 60 (SIXTY) more overseas contracts to sort out ahead of the new deals kicking in, in 2019/20.

So the bottom line is, even if the domestic deals level out (which they won’t), the overseas money is set to increase dramatically. So any dreams of prudent (penny pinching) saving/spending by Premier League clubs paying benefits in the future, is living in dream land.

This is how the overseas money has increased from the very start of the Premier League in 1992/93.

The amounts are per year how much all of the overseas TV deals were/are worth:

£7.6m – 1992-1997

£24.5m – 1997-2001

£59.3m – 2001-2004

£108.3m – 2004-2007

£216.7m – 2007-2010

£479.0m – 2010-2013

£744.0m – 2013-2016

£1.07bn – 2016-2019

Last (2016/17) season the Premier League clubs received more than twice as much as only four years earlier (2012/13).

It is pretty clear just where it is all heading and if you thought transfer fees were all a bit mad in summer 2017, just wait for two years time!

(All contributions from Newcastle fans welcome, send articles (as well as ideas/suggestions) to [email protected])

  • Leazes Ender

    You need a graph for that.

    • MichaelMaximusMoose

      That`s it then, Fattys here to stay

      • Leazes Ender

        Viva la whatever

  • Kneebotherm8

    It shows there’s no excuse for Ashley whatsoever,he’s a chancer who hopes to stay in this division on a relative shoestring. He’ll splash the cash only when he feels premiership survival is at stake. No ambition for this club to challenge for anything.

  • Lord

    It won’t be long before the international money eclipses the domestic TV revenue and when that happens, it’ll be the marquee clubs with overseas followings that zoom off even further into the distance with shirt sales, player endorsements and other income streams that become more important than domestic match day revenue.

    I travel overseas a fair bit and continue to be amazed at how many people across the world

    i) follow the Premier League (albeit casually) and
    ii) how many of those people have no clue about NUFC when I tell them who I support

    Our overseas strategy has been non-existent over the last 10 years and who would want to follow a club that gets relegated now and again anyway.

    • Down Under Mag

      I feel as a whole that the club is being very short sighted in it’s marketing ploy under Ashley. While football on the pitch and silverware in the trophy cabinet certainly attracts fans (both home and abroad), there was a genuine push by the club to establish itself in Asia, North America, Africa etc under Shepherd and Co…now we seem to avoid any overseas contact and try to do pre-season on the cheap for short term financial gain without any long term eye on future revenue. This is why we are constantly slipping away from the top money spinners…Ashley is ruining the club by looking at short term gains and it is a real shame that he doesn’t see the longer term plan of sustained international growth.

  • Damon Horner

    So you’ve written an article based on speculative figures to disprove the point of a few of your own fellow fans (insulting them for good measure) just to prove a point of something that may /may not happen in two years time?

  • 1957

    For me how much money we have may have in future is irrelevant. Except for Benitez identifying players rather than Carr, nothing has changed with how we operate on transfers. We are never going to ‘splash the cash’ the buy low and sell high principle still prevails as a business model.

    There are other factors in our feeble efforts though. No players of any significance have left yet except for Gouff and Vernon. We will struggle to sell them for many reasons be it the fee we want, the wages they are on or simply lack of ability. Add to that NUFC isn’t the big draw some supporters think. Newly promoted, struggled at the foot of the PL for years, not seen as ambitious and geographically disadvantaged. The Freddie Shepherd days of throw ridiculous money at players and they will come is over, everyone else can do it now.

    Ah but we have Rafa some will say…it’s not enough reason to move further north, when you could get an equal or better wage somewhere else. We need something different to happen, a change of ownership with a different vision…a project to use Benitez own phrase that players can buy into. But I can’t see that happening and we are where we are.

    Looking on the brightside SloMo has to come good sometime and if he does it will be like a new signing…

    • Shipcote Willy

      I agree without a change of ownership nothing will change. Giving Rafa authority over targets is meaningless if they won’t pay the prices.

  • TheFatController

    Psychology talks about a thing called ‘displaced anger’ – it usually refers to people who ‘kick the dog’ unable to kick the real cause of their anger due to inability (or cowardice) to do so. Invariably they pick an easier target.

    Maybe the inability to affect Mike Ashley in any way has led us to kick each other – happy clapper kicks doom monger…

    Although I will repeat the words of Malcolm X ‘I have no time for those who say they want freedom and next say what they’re not prepared to do for it’

    I don’t have much time for those unable to direct anger at Ashley, kick their own supporters instead as it’s an easy target, and then turn up to Ashley’s club via a season ticket. That’s not me judging, just discerning that you’re either in or out, but supporters shouldn’t talk as if they hate Ashley whilst brandishing a season ticket – if you say ‘but I love going to the game’ you kiss Malcolm X’s point entirely – if you love something you sacrifice everything for what you think is best for it (yes, that even stretches to the ultimate sacrifice in life – not going to games)…

    Probably better to use anger against Ashley than each other …. but 50k fortnightly won’t make him budge and the anger will continue.

    • Shipcote Willy

      I agree with everything you say but your words will be lost on many. I would only add that Ashley is a master of deflection. His lightening rod of choice is currently Charnley who is getting stick for failed deals.

  • DM

    I don’t think the Newcastle owners are intelligent enough to contemplate long term transfer deals. Remember, these guys hold their meetings in pubs while vomiting into the pub’s fireplace. I think it’s just Penfold’s utter incompetence which is stopping us getting our targets.

  • Wor Monga

    This is a nonsensical theory that (I suspect) you’ve dreamed up purely to write this article…players are being bought and sold for higher prices than ever before by a larger number of clubs, but it’s always by clubs that have been consistently in and around the top 10 of the PL, and in most cases it involves players that several of those clubs (with a guaranteed £100m) are interested in…There has never been anything to indicate that any future TV deals are affecting the transfer price of players in any way…

    …Most transfers will go through later in the window…when clubs either realise they are going to be left with a disgruntled player on their hands, and no money coming in or alternatively the buyer will make a last ditch increase to their offer to bring it closer to an acceptable one!!!

  • Simon Ritter

    I cannot argue against the basic point Dean Wilkins is making: prices are going up and will continue to rise because of the causal effect of TV broadcasting rights, at home and abroad. One of the latest examples is Swansea holding out for £50m before they sell Gylfi; I reckon he could have been bought for about half that 12 months ago. Likewise Walker’s fee, reported to be £45m. Spuds were happy to sell because they had the foresight to buy a replacement last summer, Kieran Trippier. NUFC have a simple choice: they pay the asking price for quality (even if that quality is unproven in the top flight) or they say No. While nothing is certain in football, a refusal to accept prices have soared this summer is likely to have only one outcome. And you don’t need to be Hercule Poirot to realise what that will be.